Handball · France Starligue · 13/11, 20:00

Prediction: Montpellier vs Dunkerque

Team pages: Montpellier · Dunkerque

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.3Total

Montpellier31.5

Dunkerque26.8

1X2

86% 14%

Montpellier Dunkerque

Markets

Under 61.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Montpellier 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDDWWL

Dunkerque 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLWLLL

Head-to-head

Montpellier 6–0 Dunkerque (6 last)

Montpellier38-27Dunkerque
Dunkerque28-36Montpellier
Montpellier24-23Dunkerque
Dunkerque22-24Montpellier
Montpellier37-25Dunkerque
Montpellier36-26Dunkerque

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Montpellier 1508 · Dunkerque 1406

	Montpellier	Dunkerque
Our model	73%	27%
Market	90%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 58.3 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · -3.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.3Montpellier 31.5 · Dunkerque 26.8

Over / Under 61.5Under · 65%recent trend · ~58.1 pts · strength 3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montpellier (rating 1508 vs 1406).
Montpellier is a clear favourite (86% market).
H2H favours Montpellier: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Montpellier	Dunkerque
Points F\|A (Last 10)	32.2 / 29.3	25.3 / 29.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28 / 28.4	24 / 29.4
Est. result	32	27

Est. total58.3

Line O/U61.5

Diff.3.2

Over / Under35% / 65%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.04

X22.00

218.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.78

2 (+7.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.88

Under 61.51.88

Diff.: 3.4 · Est. total: 58.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.04 → 1.04	Bet365 1.04
X	22.00 → 22.00	Bet365 22.00
2	18.00 → 18.00	Bet365 18.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:09 +8’	1.04	22.00	18.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Montpellier 6–0–0 Dunkerque

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 France Starligue	Montpellier	38-27	Dunkerque
12/12/25 France Starligue	Dunkerque	28-36	Montpellier
14/05/25 France Starligue	Montpellier	24-23	Dunkerque
23/11/24 France Starligue	Dunkerque	22-24	Montpellier
13/04/24 France Starligue	Montpellier	37-25	Dunkerque
03/02/24 France Cup	Montpellier	36-26	Dunkerque

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG Handball	9	9	0	0	315	241	18
2	Nantes	9	8	0	1	331	269	16
3	USAM Nimes	9	7	0	2	295	288	14
4	Montpellier	9	5	2	2	288	263	12
5	Tremblay	9	5	1	3	300	286	11
6	Limoges HB 87	9	5	0	4	296	269	10
7	Pays d'Aix UC	9	5	0	4	295	273	10
8	Caen Handball	9	5	0	4	256	285	10
9	Toulouse	9	4	0	5	255	264	8
10	Chartres Metropole HB 28	9	3	1	5	262	289	7
11	USM Saran	9	3	0	6	257	282	6
12	Selestat Alsace HB	9	3	0	6	260	277	6
13	Saint Raphael	9	3	0	6	269	300	6
14	Chambery Savoie	9	2	2	5	286	306	6
15	Cesson Rennes	9	1	0	8	275	307	2
16	Dunkerque	9	1	0	8	223	264	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Montpellier	Dunkerque
Limoges HB 87	35-33 W	24-32 L
Chambery Savoie	25-25 D	29-38 L
Selestat Alsace HB	38-30 W	23-21 W
Nantes	31-36 L	24-31 L
USAM Nimes	38-33 W	25-27 L
Chartres Metropole HB 28	41-22 W	25-27 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Montpellier (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Montpellier

WWWLWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	PSG Handball France Starligue	23-33	L
25/10	USM Saran France Starligue	31-25	W
18/10	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	35-33	W
11/10	Tremblay France Starligue	26-26	D
03/10	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	25-25	D
25/09	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	38-30	W
20/09	Nantes France Starligue	31-36	L
13/09	USAM Nimes France Starligue	38-33	W
04/09	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	41-22	W
06/06	USAM Nimes France Starligue	34-30	W

Dunkerque

DLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	24-36	L
23/10	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	24-32	L
17/10	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	25-27	L
11/10	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	23-21	W
03/10	Nantes France Starligue	24-31	L
25/09	USAM Nimes France Starligue	25-27	L
18/09	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	29-38	L
11/09	Saint Raphael France Starligue	25-26	L
06/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	24-26	L
06/06	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	30-30	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Montpellier vs Dunkerque?

Our model gives 86% to Montpellier.

How many points are expected in Montpellier vs Dunkerque?

The model estimates 58.3 total points (Montpellier 31.5 · Dunkerque 26.8).

Over or under 61.5 points?

Recent history points to under 61.5 points (65%).