Handball · France Starligue · 13/11, 20:30

Prediction: Cesson Rennes vs Toulouse

Team pages: Cesson Rennes · Toulouse

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.2Total

Cesson Rennes30.6

Toulouse30.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

48% 52%

Cesson Rennes Toulouse

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Cesson Rennes 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLLL

Toulouse 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Cesson Rennes 3–3 Toulouse (6 last)

Toulouse31-28Cesson Rennes
Cesson Rennes34-26Toulouse
Toulouse33-27Cesson Rennes
Cesson Rennes28-27Toulouse
Toulouse29-31Cesson Rennes
Toulouse28-25Cesson Rennes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cesson Rennes 1459 · Toulouse 1515

	Cesson Rennes	Toulouse
Our model	52%	48%
Market	41%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 61.2 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.2Cesson Rennes 30.6 · Toulouse 30.7

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Cesson Rennes	Toulouse
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.3 / 33.8	28.6 / 29.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.4 / 36.8	29 / 30.2
Est. result	31	31

Est. total61.2

Line O/U60.5

Diff.0.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.30

X8.00

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.88

Under 60.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · Est. total: 60.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:36 +39’	2.30	8.00	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cesson Rennes 3–0–3 Toulouse

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 France Starligue	Toulouse	31-28	Cesson Rennes
04/02/26 France Starligue	Cesson Rennes	34-26	Toulouse
28/03/25 France Starligue	Toulouse	33-27	Cesson Rennes
12/10/24 France Starligue	Cesson Rennes	28-27	Toulouse
11/04/24 France Starligue	Toulouse	29-31	Cesson Rennes
04/02/24 France Cup	Toulouse	28-25	Cesson Rennes

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG Handball	9	9	0	0	315	241	18
2	Nantes	9	8	0	1	331	269	16
3	USAM Nimes	9	7	0	2	295	288	14
4	Montpellier	9	5	2	2	288	263	12
5	Tremblay	9	5	1	3	300	286	11
6	Limoges HB 87	9	5	0	4	296	269	10
7	Pays d'Aix UC	9	5	0	4	295	273	10
8	Caen Handball	9	5	0	4	256	285	10
9	Toulouse	9	4	0	5	255	264	8
10	Chartres Metropole HB 28	9	3	1	5	262	289	7
11	USM Saran	9	3	0	6	257	282	6
12	Selestat Alsace HB	9	3	0	6	260	277	6
13	Saint Raphael	9	3	0	6	269	300	6
14	Chambery Savoie	9	2	2	5	286	306	6
15	Cesson Rennes	9	1	0	8	275	307	2
16	Dunkerque	9	1	0	8	223	264	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cesson Rennes	Toulouse
Nantes	37-46 L	30-29 W
Selestat Alsace HB	33-36 L	24-25 L
Saint Raphael	34-37 L	35-31 W
Limoges HB 87	29-31 L	31-30 W
Chartres Metropole HB 28	28-31 L	30-28 W
Pays d'Aix UC	29-28 W	26-32 L
PSG Handball	24-30 L	23-30 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Toulouse (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cesson Rennes

LLLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Nantes France Starligue	37-46	L
23/10	Tremblay France Starligue	29-34	L
16/10	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	33-36	L
09/10	Saint Raphael France Starligue	34-37	L
03/10	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	29-31	L
25/09	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	28-31	L
19/09	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	29-28	W
12/09	PSG Handball France Starligue	24-30	L
04/09	USAM Nimes France Starligue	32-34	L
06/06	Toulouse France Starligue	28-31	L

Toulouse

WLLLWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	31-30	W
23/10	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	26-32	L
16/10	Saint Raphael France Starligue	35-31	W
10/10	PSG Handball France Starligue	23-30	L
04/10	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	30-28	W
27/09	Nantes France Starligue	30-29	W
17/09	Selestat Alsace HB France Starligue	24-25	L
11/09	Caen Handball France Starligue	31-32	L
05/09	USM Saran France Starligue	25-27	L
06/06	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	31-28	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cesson Rennes vs Toulouse?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Cesson Rennes 48% · Toulouse 52%).

How many points are expected in Cesson Rennes vs Toulouse?

The model estimates 61.2 total points (Cesson Rennes 30.6 · Toulouse 30.7).