Handball · Denmark 1st Division · 15/11, 15:00

Prediction: TM Tonder vs Lemvig-Thyboran

Team pages: TM Tonder · Lemvig-Thyboran

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.6Total

TM Tonder30.9

Lemvig-Thyboran28.7

1X2

73% 27%

TM Tonder Lemvig-Thyboran

Recent form · 10 last

TM Tonder 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWWWWW

Lemvig-Thyboran 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWWLWW

Head-to-head

TM Tonder 4–1–1 Lemvig-Thyboran (6 last)

TM Tonder29-30Lemvig-Thyboran
Lemvig-Thyboran25-33TM Tonder
TM Tonder36-31Lemvig-Thyboran
Lemvig-Thyboran25-25TM Tonder
TM Tonder30-26Lemvig-Thyboran
Lemvig-Thyboran22-25TM Tonder

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TM Tonder 1557 · Lemvig-Thyboran 1514

	TM Tonder	Lemvig-Thyboran
Our model	66%	34%
Market	71%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 59.6 points · Bet365 line 59.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.6TM Tonder 30.9 · Lemvig-Thyboran 28.7

Match keys

TM Tonder is a clear favourite (73% market).
H2H favours TM Tonder: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	TM Tonder	Lemvig-Thyboran
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.9 / 27.6	30.2 / 30
Points F\|A (Last 5)	34.2 / 28.8	33.2 / 29.4
Est. result	31	29

Est. total59.6

Line O/U59.5

Diff.0.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.27

X10.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.75

2 (+3.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.85

Under 59.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · Est. total: 59.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
10:26 +52’	1.27	10.00	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TM Tonder 4–1–1 Lemvig-Thyboran

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/12/25 Denmark 1st Division	TM Tonder	29-30	Lemvig-Thyboran
31/08/25 Denmark 1st Division	Lemvig-Thyboran	25-33	TM Tonder
23/02/25 Denmark 1st Division	TM Tonder	36-31	Lemvig-Thyboran
19/10/24 Denmark 1st Division	Lemvig-Thyboran	25-25	TM Tonder
24/01/16 Denmark 1st Division	TM Tonder	30-26	Lemvig-Thyboran
03/10/15 Denmark 1st Division	Lemvig-Thyboran	22-25	TM Tonder

Standings · Denmark 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HOJ Elite	10	9	0	1	339	275	18
2	HC Midtjylland	11	9	0	2	347	323	18
3	TM Tonder	10	8	0	2	319	276	16
4	Team Sydhavsoerne	11	7	0	4	347	315	14
5	Elitesport Vendsyssel	10	6	1	3	294	296	13
6	Norddjurs Handbold	10	6	0	4	333	303	12
7	Aarhus HC	11	6	0	5	342	336	12
8	Rækker Mølle	10	5	0	5	303	299	10
9	Grindsted GIF	10	4	1	5	302	293	9
10	Lemvig-Thyboran	10	4	1	5	302	300	9
11	Koge	10	3	0	7	292	310	6
12	Odder Handbold	10	2	1	7	312	351	5
13	Stoholm Håndbold	11	1	0	10	283	372	2
14	AGF Aarhus	10	0	0	10	254	320	0

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TM Tonder	Lemvig-Thyboran
Koge	40-33 W	26-24 W
Odder Handbold	39-29 W	39-34 W
Rækker Mølle	32-25 W	25-28 L
Aarhus HC	34-32 W	26-29 L
HC Midtjylland	26-25 W	26-32 L
AGF Aarhus	28-21 W	37-29 W
Team Sydhavsoerne	30-26 W	34-37 L
Stoholm Håndbold	32-21 W	30-23 W
Grindsted GIF	30-33 L	31-31 D
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: TM Tonder (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TM Tonder

LWWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	Koge Denmark 1st Division	40-33	W
25/10	Odder Handbold Denmark 1st Division	39-29	W
18/10	Rækker Mølle Denmark 1st Division	32-25	W
10/10	Aarhus HC Denmark 1st Division	34-32	W
02/10	HC Midtjylland Denmark 1st Division	26-25	W
27/09	HOJ Elite Denmark 1st Division	28-31	L
20/09	AGF Aarhus Denmark 1st Division	28-21	W
13/09	Team Sydhavsoerne Denmark 1st Division	30-26	W
06/09	Stoholm Håndbold Denmark 1st Division	32-21	W
29/08	Grindsted GIF Denmark 1st Division	30-33	L

Lemvig-Thyboran

LLLDLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	AGF Aarhus Denmark 1st Division	37-29	W
23/10	Koge Denmark 1st Division	26-24	W
17/10	Team Sydhavsoerne Denmark 1st Division	34-37	L
09/10	Odder Handbold Denmark 1st Division	39-34	W
02/10	Stoholm Håndbold Denmark 1st Division	30-23	W
25/09	Rækker Mølle Denmark 1st Division	25-28	L
19/09	Grindsted GIF Denmark 1st Division	31-31	D
11/09	Aarhus HC Denmark 1st Division	26-29	L
04/09	Norddjurs Handbold Denmark 1st Division	28-33	L
29/08	HC Midtjylland Denmark 1st Division	26-32	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TM Tonder vs Lemvig-Thyboran?

Our model gives 73% to TM Tonder.

How many points are expected in TM Tonder vs Lemvig-Thyboran?

The model estimates 59.6 total points (TM Tonder 30.9 · Lemvig-Thyboran 28.7).