Handball · Austria HLA · 14/11, 19:00

Prediction: HSG Graz vs Alpla HC Hard

Team pages: HSG Graz · Alpla HC Hard

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.9Total

HSG Graz31.3

Alpla HC Hard31.6

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

52% 48%

HSG Graz Alpla HC Hard

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

HSG Graz 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLWLLL

Alpla HC Hard 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

HSG Graz 0–1–5 Alpla HC Hard (6 last)

Alpla HC Hard26-26HSG Graz
HSG Graz30-38Alpla HC Hard
HSG Graz28-34Alpla HC Hard
Alpla HC Hard38-27HSG Graz
Alpla HC Hard40-28HSG Graz
HSG Graz23-24Alpla HC Hard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSG Graz 1488 · Alpla HC Hard 1467

	HSG Graz	Alpla HC Hard
Our model	63%	37%
Market	40%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 62.9 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.9HSG Graz 31.3 · Alpla HC Hard 31.6

Match keys

H2H favours Alpla HC Hard: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HSG Graz	Alpla HC Hard
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.5 / 33	31.4 / 30.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.4 / 33.8	31.6 / 31.6
Est. result	31	32

Est. total62.9

Line O/U62.5

Diff.0.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.30

X8.00

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.85

Under 62.51.85

Diff.: 0.85 · Est. total: 63.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
10:09 +8’	2.30	8.00	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSG Graz 0–1–5 Alpla HC Hard

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/26 Austria HLA	Alpla HC Hard	26-26	HSG Graz
03/10/25 Austria HLA	HSG Graz	30-38	Alpla HC Hard
22/02/25 Austria HLA	HSG Graz	28-34	Alpla HC Hard
04/10/24 Austria HLA	Alpla HC Hard	38-27	HSG Graz
07/12/23 Austria HLA	Alpla HC Hard	40-28	HSG Graz
02/09/23 Austria HLA	HSG Graz	23-24	Alpla HC Hard

Standings · Austria HLA

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Ferlach	9	5	4	0	268	247	14
2	Handball Tirol	9	6	0	3	279	259	12
3	Fivers WAT Margareten	9	6	0	3	312	284	12
4	Voslauer HC	9	5	0	4	266	254	10
5	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	9	4	2	3	263	251	10
6	BT Fuchse	9	5	0	4	278	275	10
7	Bregenz Handball	10	4	1	5	321	318	9
8	Alpla HC Hard	9	4	0	5	283	275	8
9	HC Linz AG	9	4	0	5	266	272	8
10	HSG Graz	9	4	0	5	286	298	8
11	UHK Krems	10	3	2	5	296	309	8
12	WAT Atzgersdorf	9	0	1	8	235	311	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSG Graz	Alpla HC Hard
BT Fuchse	31-36 L	33-35 L
SC Ferlach	29-36 L	26-28 L
WAT Atzgersdorf	34-29 W	37-27 W
Fivers WAT Margareten	34-37 L	31-38 L
Bregenz Handball	35-32 W	34-35 L
HC Linz AG	29-36 L	30-24 W
HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat	30-29 W	26-34 L
UHK Krems	35-32 W	32-27 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Alpla HC Hard (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSG Graz

LWWLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	31-36	L
27/10	SC Ferlach Austria HLA	29-36	L
23/10	Handball Tirol Austria HLA	29-31	L
10/10	WAT Atzgersdorf Austria HLA	34-29	W
07/10	Fivers WAT Margareten Austria HLA	34-37	L
04/10	Bregenz Handball Austria HLA	35-32	W
26/09	HC Linz AG Austria HLA	29-36	L
11/09	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat Austria HLA	30-29	W
05/09	UHK Krems Austria HLA	35-32	W
03/06	Bregenz Handball Austria HLA	29-32	L

Alpla HC Hard

LLLWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	WAT Atzgersdorf Austria HLA	37-27	W
24/10	Bregenz Handball Austria HLA	34-35	L
16/10	HC Linz AG Austria HLA	30-24	W
10/10	Fivers WAT Margareten Austria HLA	31-38	L
03/10	HSG Xentis Lipizzanerheimat Austria HLA	26-34	L
26/09	UHK Krems Austria HLA	32-27	W
23/09	Voslauer HC Austria HLA	34-27	W
09/09	SC Ferlach Austria HLA	26-28	L
05/09	BT Fuchse Austria HLA	33-35	L
09/05	Fivers WAT Margareten Austria HLA	31-33	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSG Graz vs Alpla HC Hard?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (HSG Graz 52% · Alpla HC Hard 48%).

How many points are expected in HSG Graz vs Alpla HC Hard?

The model estimates 62.9 total points (HSG Graz 31.3 · Alpla HC Hard 31.6).