Handball · Poland SuperLiga Women · 08/09, 20:15

Prediction: Start Elblag (W) vs MKS Gniezno (W)

Team pages: Start Elblag (W) · MKS Gniezno (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.4Total

Start Elblag (W)29.4

MKS Gniezno (W)29.9

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

48% 52%

Start Elblag (W) MKS Gniezno (W)

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 56.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

Start Elblag (W) 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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MKS Gniezno (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Start Elblag (W) 2–2–2 MKS Gniezno (W) (6 last)

MKS Gniezno (W)30-21Start Elblag (W)
Start Elblag (W)23-32MKS Gniezno (W)
MKS Gniezno (W)29-29Start Elblag (W)
Start Elblag (W)29-21MKS Gniezno (W)
MKS Gniezno (W)32-33Start Elblag (W)
Start Elblag (W)34-34MKS Gniezno (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Start Elblag (W) 1460 · MKS Gniezno (W) 1452

	Start Elblag (W)	MKS Gniezno (W)
Our model	61%	39%
Market	35%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 59.4 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +2.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.4Start Elblag (W) 29.4 · MKS Gniezno (W) 29.9

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Start Elblag (W)	MKS Gniezno (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.3 / 33.5	26.2 / 30.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.6 / 32.6	28.6 / 31.4
Est. result	29	30

Est. total59.4

Line O/U56.5

Diff.2.9

Over / Under75% / 25%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.55

X8.00

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.75

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.85

Under 56.51.85

Diff.: 3.05 · Est. total: 59.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:44 +2’	2.55	8.00	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Start Elblag (W) 2–2–2 MKS Gniezno (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/01/26 Poland SuperLiga Women	MKS Gniezno (W)	30-21	Start Elblag (W)
26/10/25 Poland SuperLiga Women	Start Elblag (W)	23-32	MKS Gniezno (W)
03/05/25 Poland SuperLiga Women	MKS Gniezno (W)	29-29	Start Elblag (W)
22/03/25 Poland SuperLiga Women	Start Elblag (W)	29-21	MKS Gniezno (W)
04/01/25 Poland SuperLiga Women	MKS Gniezno (W)	32-33	Start Elblag (W)
01/09/24 Poland SuperLiga Women	Start Elblag (W)	34-34	MKS Gniezno (W)

Standings · Poland SuperLiga Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zaglebie Lubin (W)	1	1	0	40	25	3
2	MKS Lublin (W)	1	1	0	36	23	3
3	KPR Kobierzyce (W)	1	1	0	31	21	3
4	Galychanka Lviv (W)	1	1	0	37	29	3
5	MKS Piotrcovia (W)	1	1	0	25	21	3
6	MKS Gniezno (W)	1	0	1	21	25	0
7	Sosnica Gliwice (W)	1	0	1	29	37	0
8	Ruch Szczypiorno Kalisz (W)	1	0	1	21	31	0
9	KS APR Radom (W)	1	0	1	23	36	0
10	Start Elblag (W)	1	0	1	25	40	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Start Elblag (W)	MKS Gniezno (W)
Zaglebie Lubin (W)	25-40 L	19-29 L
MKS Lublin (W)	23-37 L	29-37 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: MKS Gniezno (W) (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Start Elblag (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/09	Zaglebie Lubin (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	25-40	L
19/04	Galychanka Lviv (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	36-34	W
31/03	Ruch Szczypiorno Kalisz (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	28-29	L
21/03	Sosnica Gliwice (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	32-29	W
14/03	Galychanka Lviv (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	27-31	L
28/02	Ruch Szczypiorno Kalisz (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	37-38	L
22/02	Sosnica Gliwice (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	31-28	W
07/02	MKS Lublin (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	23-37	L
01/02	Zaglebie Lubin (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	33-39	L
27/01	MKS Gniezno (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	21-30	L

MKS Gniezno (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	MKS Piotrcovia (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	21-25	L
23/05	KPR Kobierzyce (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	26-38	L
16/05	MKS Lublin (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	29-37	L
01/05	Koszalin (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	31-26	W
22/04	MKS Piotrcovia (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	36-31	W
19/04	Zaglebie Lubin (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	19-29	L
28/03	KPR Kobierzyce (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	24-36	L
21/03	MKS Lublin (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	26-28	L
11/03	MKS Piotrcovia (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	24-24	D
01/03	Koszalin (W) Poland SuperLiga Women	26-27	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Start Elblag (W) vs MKS Gniezno (W)?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Start Elblag (W) 48% · MKS Gniezno (W) 52%).

How many points are expected in Start Elblag (W) vs MKS Gniezno (W)?

The model estimates 59.4 total points (Start Elblag (W) 29.4 · MKS Gniezno (W) 29.9).