Handball · France Starligue · 14/11, 19:00

Prediction: Nantes vs Saint Raphael

Team pages: Nantes · Saint Raphael

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.2Total

Nantes35.1

Saint Raphael30.1

1X2

84% 16%

Nantes Saint Raphael

Recent form · 10 last

Nantes 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Saint Raphael 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nantes 6–0 Saint Raphael (6 last)

Saint Raphael32-33Nantes
Nantes46-32Saint Raphael
Saint Raphael28-31Nantes
Nantes36-29Saint Raphael
Nantes35-31Saint Raphael
Nantes34-25Saint Raphael

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nantes 1565 · Saint Raphael 1457

	Nantes	Saint Raphael
Our model	74%	26%
Market	86%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 65.2 points · Bet365 line 64.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.2Nantes 35.1 · Saint Raphael 30.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nantes (rating 1565 vs 1457).
Nantes is a clear favourite (84% market).
H2H favours Nantes: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Nantes	Saint Raphael
Points F\|A (Last 10)	37.2 / 30.4	30.6 / 33
Points F\|A (Last 5)	38 / 30.4	32 / 35.4
Est. result	35	30

Est. total65.2

Line O/U64.5

Diff.0.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.09

X16.00

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-6.5)1.88

2 (+6.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 64.51.85

Under 64.51.90

Diff.: 1.1 · Est. total: 65.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.09▼	Bet365 1.09
X	14.00 → 16.00▲	Bet365 16.00
2	9.00 → 12.00▲	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +15’	1.14	14.00	9.00
12:50 +27’	1.09▼	16.00▲	12.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nantes 6–0–0 Saint Raphael

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 France Starligue	Saint Raphael	32-33	Nantes
05/10/25 France Starligue	Nantes	46-32	Saint Raphael
16/05/25 France Starligue	Saint Raphael	28-31	Nantes
13/10/24 France Starligue	Nantes	36-29	Saint Raphael
16/02/24 France Starligue	Nantes	35-31	Saint Raphael
03/02/24 France Cup	Nantes	34-25	Saint Raphael

Standings · France Starligue

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG Handball	9	9	0	0	315	241	18
2	Nantes	9	8	0	1	331	269	16
3	USAM Nimes	9	7	0	2	295	288	14
4	Montpellier	9	5	2	2	288	263	12
5	Tremblay	9	5	1	3	300	286	11
6	Limoges HB 87	9	5	0	4	296	269	10
7	Pays d'Aix UC	9	5	0	4	295	273	10
8	Caen Handball	9	5	0	4	256	285	10
9	Toulouse	9	4	0	5	255	264	8
10	Chartres Metropole HB 28	9	3	1	5	262	289	7
11	USM Saran	9	3	0	6	257	282	6
12	Selestat Alsace HB	9	3	0	6	260	277	6
13	Saint Raphael	9	3	0	6	269	300	6
14	Chambery Savoie	9	2	2	5	286	306	6
15	Cesson Rennes	9	1	0	8	275	307	2
16	Dunkerque	9	1	0	8	223	264	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nantes	Saint Raphael
Cesson Rennes	46-37 W	37-34 W
Chambery Savoie	41-29 W	34-33 W
USM Saran	34-31 W	22-26 L
Caen Handball	38-31 W	30-33 L
Dunkerque	31-24 W	26-25 W
Toulouse	29-30 L	31-35 L
Tremblay	38-28 W	30-36 L
Limoges HB 87	41-35 W	31-36 L
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Nantes (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nantes

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	46-37	W
24/10	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	41-29	W
17/10	USM Saran France Starligue	34-31	W
11/10	Caen Handball France Starligue	38-31	W
03/10	Dunkerque France Starligue	31-24	W
27/09	Toulouse France Starligue	29-30	L
20/09	Montpellier France Starligue	36-31	W
12/09	Pays d'Aix UC France Starligue	38-28	W
05/09	Tremblay France Starligue	38-28	W
06/06	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	41-35	W

Saint Raphael

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	Chambery Savoie France Starligue	34-33	W
25/10	PSG Handball France Starligue	28-42	L
16/10	Toulouse France Starligue	31-35	L
09/10	Cesson Rennes France Starligue	37-34	W
02/10	Caen Handball France Starligue	30-33	L
25/09	USM Saran France Starligue	22-26	L
18/09	Tremblay France Starligue	30-36	L
11/09	Dunkerque France Starligue	26-25	W
04/09	Limoges HB 87 France Starligue	31-36	L
06/06	Chartres Metropole HB 28 France Starligue	37-30	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nantes vs Saint Raphael?

Our model gives 84% to Nantes.

How many points are expected in Nantes vs Saint Raphael?

The model estimates 65.2 total points (Nantes 35.1 · Saint Raphael 30.1).