Handball · Serbia Superliga Women · 16/09, 19:00

Prediction: Jagodina (W) vs Crvena Zvezda (W)

Team pages: Jagodina (W) · Crvena Zvezda (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

50.2Total

Jagodina (W)23.5

Crvena Zvezda (W)26.7

1X2

23% 77%

Jagodina (W) Crvena Zvezda (W)

Recent form · 10 last

Jagodina (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWLWL

Crvena Zvezda (W) 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Jagodina (W) 0–1–5 Crvena Zvezda (W) (6 last)

Jagodina (W)18-18Crvena Zvezda (W)
Crvena Zvezda (W)29-20Jagodina (W)
Crvena Zvezda (W)38-18Jagodina (W)
Jagodina (W)24-27Crvena Zvezda (W)
Crvena Zvezda (W)25-23Jagodina (W)
Jagodina (W)21-25Crvena Zvezda (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jagodina (W) 1496 · Crvena Zvezda (W) 1592

	Jagodina (W)	Crvena Zvezda (W)
Our model	46%	54%
Market	6%	89%

Estimated total (ours) 50.2 points · Bet365 line 52.5 · -2.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points50.2Jagodina (W) 23.5 · Crvena Zvezda (W) 26.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crvena Zvezda (W) (rating 1496 vs 1592).
Crvena Zvezda (W) is a clear favourite (77% market).
H2H favours Crvena Zvezda (W): 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Jagodina (W)	Crvena Zvezda (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	23.4 / 23.6	32.9 / 23.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	23.6 / 24	33 / 24.4
Est. result	24	27

Est. total50.2

Line O/U52.5

Diff.2.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

114.00

X18.00

21.02

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+8.5)1.95

2 (-8.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 52.51.85

Under 52.51.85

Diff.: 0.7 · Est. total: 51.8

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 18:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 14.00▲	Bet365 14.00
X	11.00 → 18.00▲	Bet365 18.00
2	1.14 → 1.02▼	Bet365 1.02

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:43 +6’	7.00	11.00	1.14
15:50 +2’	9.00▲	13.00▲	1.09▼
17:48 +3’	10.00▲	14.00▲	1.06▼
18:48 +5’	14.00▲	18.00▲	1.02▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jagodina (W) 0–1–5 Crvena Zvezda (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Serbia Superliga Women	Jagodina (W)	18-18	Crvena Zvezda (W)
02/10/25 Serbia Superliga Women	Crvena Zvezda (W)	29-20	Jagodina (W)
08/09/25 Serbia Super Cup Women	Crvena Zvezda (W)	38-18	Jagodina (W)
24/02/25 Serbia Superliga Women	Jagodina (W)	24-27	Crvena Zvezda (W)
16/10/24 Serbia Superliga Women	Crvena Zvezda (W)	25-23	Jagodina (W)
22/03/24 Serbia Superliga Women	Jagodina (W)	21-25	Crvena Zvezda (W)

Standings · Serbia Superliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Radnicki Kragujevac (W)	1	1	0	29	18	2
2	Crvena Zvezda (W)	1	1	0	39	29	2
3	HC Naisa Nis (W)	1	1	0	36	28	2
4	ZRK Bor (W)	1	1	0	27	19	2
5	ZRK Ruma (W)	1	1	0	23	16	2
6	GZRK Napredak 12 (W)	1	1	0	23	22	2
7	ZRK Partizan (W)	1	0	1	22	23	0
8	Mladost NP (W)	1	0	1	16	23	0
9	ZRK Temerin (W)	1	0	1	28	36	0
10	Jagodina (W)	1	0	1	19	27	0
11	RK Vojvodina (W)	1	0	1	29	39	0
12	ZRK Bukovicka Banja (W)	1	0	1	18	29	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jagodina (W)	Crvena Zvezda (W)
ZRK Bukovicka Banja (W)	26-19 W	31-18 W
GZRK Napredak 12 (W)	22-26 L	35-29 W
ZRK Ruma (W)	24-20 W	30-24 W
HC Naisa Nis (W)	22-21 W	25-19 W
Mladost NP (W)	24-21 W	35-25 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Crvena Zvezda (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jagodina (W)

WLLWWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	ZRK Bor (W) Serbia Superliga Women	19-27	L
16/05	ZRK Bukovicka Banja (W) Serbia Superliga Women	26-19	W
09/05	GZRK Napredak 12 (W) Serbia Superliga Women	22-26	L
30/04	ZRK Ruma (W) Serbia Superliga Women	24-20	W
25/04	ZRK Temerin (W) Serbia Superliga Women	27-28	L
20/04	ZRK Partizan (W) Serbia Superliga Women	23-22	W
15/04	HC Naisa Nis (W) Serbia Superliga Women	22-21	W
03/04	GZRK Napredak 12 (W) Serbia Superliga Women	24-28	L
23/03	ZRK Bor (W) Serbia Superliga Women	23-24	L
15/03	Mladost NP (W) Serbia Superliga Women	24-21	W

Crvena Zvezda (W)

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	RK Vojvodina (W) Serbia Superliga Women	39-29	W
24/05	HC Naisa Nis (W) Serbia Superliga Women	25-19	W
18/05	HC Naisa Nis (W) Serbia Superliga Women	32-28	W
11/05	Mladost NP (W) Serbia Superliga Women	35-25	W
30/04	Mladost NP (W) Serbia Superliga Women	34-21	W
26/04	ZRK Zeleznicar (W) Serbia Superliga Women	37-18	W
19/04	ZRK Ruma (W) Serbia Superliga Women	30-24	W
15/04	GZRK Napredak 12 (W) Serbia Superliga Women	35-29	W
03/04	ZRK Bukovicka Banja (W) Serbia Superliga Women	31-18	W
25/03	HC Naisa Nis (W) Serbia Superliga Women	31-26	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jagodina (W) vs Crvena Zvezda (W)?

Our model gives 77% to Crvena Zvezda (W).

How many points are expected in Jagodina (W) vs Crvena Zvezda (W)?

The model estimates 50.2 total points (Jagodina (W) 23.5 · Crvena Zvezda (W) 26.7).