Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 14/11, 19:00
Prediction: HC Erlangen vs HSV Hamburg
Team pages: HC Erlangen · HSV Hamburg
Prediction summary
Estimated points
60.7Total
HC Erlangen30.8
HSV Hamburg30
1X2
HC Erlangen
HSV Hamburg
Recent form · 10 last
HC Erlangen
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
HSV Hamburg
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
HC Erlangen
1–5
HSV Hamburg
(6 last)
- HC Erlangen23-31HSV Hamburg
- HSV Hamburg34-26HC Erlangen
- HC Erlangen29-35HSV Hamburg
- HSV Hamburg28-27HC Erlangen
- HC Erlangen30-28HSV Hamburg
- HSV Hamburg31-23HC Erlangen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · HC Erlangen 1538 · HSV Hamburg 1492
| HC Erlangen | HSV Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 50% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
60.7 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · -0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points60.7HC Erlangen 30.8 · HSV Hamburg 30
Match keys
- H2H favours HSV Hamburg: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| HC Erlangen | HSV Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 31.2 / 30.8 | 30.1 / 30.4 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 32.2 / 33.4 | 27.4 / 27.8 |
| Est. result | 31 | 30 |
Est. total60.7
Line O/U61.5
Diff.0.8
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · HC Erlangen 1–0–5 HSV Hamburg
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Germany Bundesliga | HC Erlangen | 23-31 | HSV Hamburg |
| 23/11/25 Germany Bundesliga | HSV Hamburg | 34-26 | HC Erlangen |
| 16/02/25 Germany Bundesliga | HC Erlangen | 29-35 | HSV Hamburg |
| 24/11/24 Germany Bundesliga | HSV Hamburg | 28-27 | HC Erlangen |
| 16/02/24 Germany Bundesliga | HC Erlangen | 30-28 | HSV Hamburg |
| 17/11/23 Germany Bundesliga | HSV Hamburg | 31-23 | HC Erlangen |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | THW Kiel | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 378 | 336 | 21 |
| 2 | SC Magdeburg | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 363 | 317 | 20 |
| 3 | SG Flensburg-Handewitt | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 378 | 336 | 19 |
| 4 | MT Melsungen | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 335 | 304 | 15 |
| 5 | Fuchse Berlin | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 338 | 315 | 14 |
| 6 | Vfl Gummersbach | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 352 | 327 | 14 |
| 7 | TBV Lemgo | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 338 | 339 | 14 |
| 8 | HC Erlangen | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 342 | 340 | 13 |
| 9 | TSV Hannover Burgdorf | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 319 | 319 | 12 |
| 10 | TVB 1898 Stuttgart | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 333 | 332 | 11 |
| 11 | Frisch Auf Goppingen | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 307 | 336 | 8 |
| 12 | HSV Hamburg | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 327 | 334 | 7 |
| 13 | Rhein Neckar Lowen | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 312 | 332 | 7 |
| 14 | ThSV Eisenach | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 310 | 337 | 6 |
| 15 | HBW Balingen-Weilstetten | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 288 | 297 | 5 |
| 16 | Bergischer HC | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 270 | 308 | 4 |
| 17 | SG BBM Bietigheim | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 323 | 366 | 4 |
| 18 | HSG Wetzlar | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 326 | 364 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | HC Erlangen | HSV Hamburg |
|---|---|---|
| SG BBM Bietigheim | 35-34 W | 35-30 W |
| THW Kiel | 31-36 L | 19-26 L |
| HSG Wetzlar | 34-30 W | 37-32 W |
| TBV Lemgo | 33-28 W | 30-34 L |
| Bergischer HC | 29-28 W | 25-26 L |
| SG Flensburg-Handewitt | 33-38 L | 34-37 L |
| TSV Hannover Burgdorf | 28-28 D | 28-30 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: HC Erlangen (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
HC Erlangen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga |
35-34 | W |
| 24/10 | THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga |
31-36 | L |
| 15/10 | HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga |
34-30 | W |
| 11/10 | MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga |
33-32 | W |
| 04/10 | SC Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga |
28-35 | L |
| 28/09 | ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga |
28-19 | W |
| 20/09 | TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga |
33-28 | W |
| 13/09 | Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga |
29-28 | W |
| 05/09 | SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga |
33-38 | L |
| 02/09 | TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga |
28-28 | D |
HSV Hamburg
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga |
28-23 | W |
| 25/10 | Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga |
25-26 | L |
| 17/10 | SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga |
35-30 | W |
| 11/10 | THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga |
19-26 | L |
| 01/10 | TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga |
30-34 | L |
| 27/09 | HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga |
37-32 | W |
| 20/09 | SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga |
34-37 | L |
| 13/09 | Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga |
31-32 | L |
| 05/09 | TSV Hannover Burgdorf Germany Bundesliga |
28-30 | L |
| 02/09 | TVB 1898 Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga |
34-34 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in HC Erlangen vs HSV Hamburg?
Our model gives 61% to HC Erlangen.
How many points are expected in HC Erlangen vs HSV Hamburg?
The model estimates 60.7 total points (HC Erlangen 30.8 · HSV Hamburg 30).