Handball · Germany Bundesliga · 15/11, 18:00

Prediction: Vfl Gummersbach vs TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Team pages: Vfl Gummersbach · TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.9Total

Vfl Gummersbach31.4

TSV Hannover Burgdorf28.5

1X2

73% 27%

Vfl Gummersbach TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Recent form · 10 last

Vfl Gummersbach 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLDWWW

TSV Hannover Burgdorf 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLLDLW

Head-to-head

Vfl Gummersbach 4–1–1 TSV Hannover Burgdorf (6 last)

Vfl Gummersbach33-27TSV Hannover Burgdorf
TSV Hannover Burgdorf26-29Vfl Gummersbach
Vfl Gummersbach39-29TSV Hannover Burgdorf
TSV Hannover Burgdorf28-32Vfl Gummersbach
TSV Hannover Burgdorf32-29Vfl Gummersbach
Vfl Gummersbach33-33TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vfl Gummersbach 1575 · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 1483

	Vfl Gummersbach	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
Our model	72%	28%
Market	66%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 59.9 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.9Vfl Gummersbach 31.4 · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 28.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vfl Gummersbach (rating 1575 vs 1483).
Vfl Gummersbach is a clear favourite (73% market).
H2H favours Vfl Gummersbach: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Vfl Gummersbach	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
Points F\|A (Last 10)	32.1 / 29.4	28.7 / 28.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.4 / 28.2	27.2 / 29.2
Est. result	31	29

Est. total59.9

Line O/U60.5

Diff.0.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.42

X9.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.85

2 (+2.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.88

Under 60.51.88

Diff.: 1 · Est. total: 59.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +15’	1.42	9.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vfl Gummersbach 4–1–1 TSV Hannover Burgdorf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Germany Bundesliga	Vfl Gummersbach	33-27	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
27/08/25 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	26-29	Vfl Gummersbach
08/06/25 Germany Bundesliga	Vfl Gummersbach	39-29	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
05/09/24 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	28-32	Vfl Gummersbach
07/02/24 Germany Bundesliga	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	32-29	Vfl Gummersbach
06/09/23 Germany Bundesliga	Vfl Gummersbach	33-33	TSV Hannover Burgdorf

Standings · Germany Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	THW Kiel	12	10	1	1	378	336	21
2	SC Magdeburg	11	10	0	1	363	317	20
3	SG Flensburg-Handewitt	11	9	1	1	378	336	19
4	MT Melsungen	11	7	1	3	335	304	15
5	Fuchse Berlin	10	7	0	3	338	315	14
6	Vfl Gummersbach	11	6	2	3	352	327	14
7	TBV Lemgo	11	7	0	4	338	339	14
8	HC Erlangen	11	6	1	4	342	340	13
9	TSV Hannover Burgdorf	11	5	2	4	319	319	12
10	TVB 1898 Stuttgart	11	5	1	5	333	332	11
11	Frisch Auf Goppingen	11	4	0	7	307	336	8
12	HSV Hamburg	11	3	1	7	327	334	7
13	Rhein Neckar Lowen	11	3	1	7	312	332	7
14	ThSV Eisenach	11	2	2	7	310	337	6
15	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	10	2	1	7	288	297	5
16	Bergischer HC	10	2	0	8	270	308	4
17	SG BBM Bietigheim	11	2	0	9	323	366	4
18	HSG Wetzlar	11	0	2	9	326	364	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vfl Gummersbach	TSV Hannover Burgdorf
HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	39-29 W	29-29 D
Frisch Auf Goppingen	33-25 W	36-28 W
SG Flensburg-Handewitt	31-30 W	32-39 L
THW Kiel	26-29 L	26-29 L
Bergischer HC	38-30 W	27-21 W
MT Melsungen	31-31 D	22-28 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vfl Gummersbach (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vfl Gummersbach

WDLWWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	39-29	W
29/10	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	33-25	W
25/10	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	31-30	W
16/10	ThSV Eisenach Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D
03/10	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
27/09	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	38-30	W
20/09	HSG Wetzlar Germany Bundesliga	36-33	W
13/09	Fuchse Berlin Germany Bundesliga	28-33	L
05/09	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	31-31	D
02/09	Rhein Neckar Lowen Germany Bundesliga	31-26	W

TSV Hannover Burgdorf

DWLWWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Bergischer HC Germany Bundesliga	27-21	W
23/10	TBV Lemgo Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
19/10	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany Bundesliga	29-29	D
09/10	SG Flensburg-Handewitt Germany Bundesliga	32-39	L
03/10	MT Melsungen Germany Bundesliga	22-28	L
27/09	Frisch Auf Goppingen Germany Bundesliga	36-28	W
19/09	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany Bundesliga	31-29	W
12/09	THW Kiel Germany Bundesliga	26-29	L
05/09	HSV Hamburg Germany Bundesliga	30-28	W
02/09	HC Erlangen Germany Bundesliga	28-28	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vfl Gummersbach vs TSV Hannover Burgdorf?

Our model gives 73% to Vfl Gummersbach.

How many points are expected in Vfl Gummersbach vs TSV Hannover Burgdorf?

The model estimates 59.9 total points (Vfl Gummersbach 31.4 · TSV Hannover Burgdorf 28.5).