Handball · Spain Liga Guerreras Women · 01/11, 11:00

Prediction: BM Morvedre (W) vs BM Elche (W)

Team pages: BM Morvedre (W) · BM Elche (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

42.5Total

BM Morvedre (W)20.2

BM Elche (W)22.4

1X2

37% 63%

BM Morvedre (W) BM Elche (W)

Recent form · 10 last

BM Morvedre (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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BM Elche (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

BM Morvedre (W) 0–1–5 BM Elche (W) (6 last)

BM Morvedre (W)25-25BM Elche (W)
BM Elche (W)19-14BM Morvedre (W)
BM Elche (W)24-20BM Morvedre (W)
BM Elche (W)27-19BM Morvedre (W)
BM Morvedre (W)25-29BM Elche (W)
BM Elche (W)32-19BM Morvedre (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BM Morvedre (W) 1476 · BM Elche (W) 1581

	BM Morvedre (W)	BM Elche (W)
Our model	45%	55%
Market	28%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 42.5 points · Bet365 line 44.5 · -2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points42.5BM Morvedre (W) 20.2 · BM Elche (W) 22.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BM Elche (W) (rating 1476 vs 1581).
H2H favours BM Elche (W): 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	BM Morvedre (W)	BM Elche (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	21.2 / 22.6	23.1 / 20.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	21 / 21.2	22 / 19.2
Est. result	20	22

Est. total42.5

Line O/U44.5

Diff.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.20

X7.50

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.95

2 (-1.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 44.51.85

Under 44.51.85

Diff.: 0.8 · Est. total: 43.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:17 +11’	3.20	7.50	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BM Morvedre (W) 0–1–5 BM Elche (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/26 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Morvedre (W)	25-25	BM Elche (W)
15/11/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Elche (W)	19-14	BM Morvedre (W)
09/08/25 Club Friendlies Women	BM Elche (W)	24-20	BM Morvedre (W)
19/04/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Elche (W)	27-19	BM Morvedre (W)
29/12/24 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Morvedre (W)	25-29	BM Elche (W)
25/08/24 Matches Women 2x25mins	BM Elche (W)	32-19	BM Morvedre (W)

Standings · Spain Liga Guerreras Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bera Bera (W)	7	6	0	1	193	161	12
2	Atletico Guardes (W)	7	5	1	1	169	145	11
3	Elda Prestigio (W)	7	5	0	2	168	161	10
4	BM Elche (W)	6	5	0	1	141	122	10
5	CBF Malaga (W)	7	5	0	2	176	140	10
6	Beti-Onak (W)	7	4	1	2	174	161	9
7	Sporting La Rioja (W)	6	4	0	2	137	135	8
8	Rocasa (W)	7	3	0	4	188	185	6
9	BM Morvedre (W)	6	3	0	3	124	133	6
10	BM Granollers (W)	7	2	0	5	152	174	4
11	BM Porrino (W)	7	2	0	5	150	179	4
12	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W)	7	1	0	6	163	182	2
13	Oviedo BM (W)	6	1	0	5	121	140	2
14	Pozuelo de Calatrava (W)	7	0	0	7	146	184	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BM Morvedre (W)	BM Elche (W)
Sporting La Rioja (W)	21-24 L	17-15 W
Oviedo BM (W)	24-19 W	24-22 W
BM Granollers (W)	22-16 W	27-23 W
Atletico Guardes (W)	16-26 L	16-20 L
BM Porrino (W)	19-27 L	26-16 W
Lanzarote Zonzamas (W)	22-25 L	25-21 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: BM Elche (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BM Morvedre (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
14/10	Pozuelo de Calatrava (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-21	W
10/10	Sporting La Rioja (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	21-24	L
03/10	Oviedo BM (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	24-19	W
16/09	BM Granollers (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-16	W
12/09	Atletico Guardes (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	16-26	L
09/09	BM Porrino (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	19-27	L
30/05	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-25	L
23/05	Aula Valladolid (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	20-28	L
16/05	Elda Prestigio (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-20	W
02/05	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	24-20	W

BM Elche (W)

WWWLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
14/10	Sporting La Rioja (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	17-15	W
10/10	Oviedo BM (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	24-22	W
03/10	BM Granollers (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	27-23	W
16/09	Atletico Guardes (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	16-20	L
12/09	BM Porrino (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	26-16	W
09/09	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	31-26	W
03/05	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	19-25	L
25/04	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	24-19	W
18/04	BM Granollers (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-18	W
04/04	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-21	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BM Morvedre (W) vs BM Elche (W)?

Our model gives 63% to BM Elche (W).

How many points are expected in BM Morvedre (W) vs BM Elche (W)?

The model estimates 42.5 total points (BM Morvedre (W) 20.2 · BM Elche (W) 22.4).