Handball · Norway 1st Division · 27/09, 16:00

Prediction: Nordstrand vs Tiller IL

Team pages: Nordstrand · Tiller IL

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.6Total

Nordstrand32.6

Tiller IL26

1X2

79% 21%

Nordstrand Tiller IL

Recent form · 10 last

Nordstrand 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLWWW

Tiller IL 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Nordstrand 2–0 Tiller IL (2 last)

Nordstrand30-23Tiller IL
Tiller IL24-35Nordstrand

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nordstrand 1568 · Tiller IL 1428

	Nordstrand	Tiller IL
Our model	77%	23%
Market	73%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 58.6 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +2.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.6Nordstrand 32.6 · Tiller IL 26

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nordstrand (rating 1568 vs 1428).
Nordstrand is a clear favourite (79% market).
H2H favours Nordstrand: 2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Nordstrand	Tiller IL
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.9 / 29.9	24.6 / 32.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.2 / 27	23.8 / 34.8
Est. result	33	26

Est. total58.6

Line O/U56.5

Diff.2.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

X10.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.85

2 (+4.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.85

Under 56.51.85

Diff.: 2.4 · Est. total: 58.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
05:47 +6’	1.22	10.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nordstrand 2–0–0 Tiller IL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Norway 1st Division	Nordstrand	30-23	Tiller IL
31/08/25 Norway 1st Division	Tiller IL	24-35	Nordstrand

Standings · Norway 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Halden	5	5	0	176	136	10
2	Bækkelaget	4	3	1	134	100	6
3	Haslum HK	4	3	1	121	105	6
4	Notteroy	5	3	2	155	143	6
5	Nordstrand	4	3	1	123	111	6
6	Melhus	3	2	1	82	75	4
7	Bodø HK	4	2	2	104	100	4
8	Charlottenlund SK	3	2	1	92	78	4
9	Lillestrom HK	3	1	2	90	96	2
10	Varhaug	4	1	3	114	126	2
11	Asane	4	1	3	112	125	2
12	Ryger Stavanger	4	1	3	99	118	2
13	Kragero	3	0	3	75	108	0
14	Tiller IL	4	0	4	94	150	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nordstrand	Tiller IL
Bodø HK	25-24 W	26-31 L
Charlottenlund SK	29-30 L	21-40 L
Bjornar	28-24 W	26-30 L
Haslum HK	26-29 L	23-40 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Nordstrand (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nordstrand

WLLLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	Varhaug Norway 1st Division	37-30	W
13/09	Ryger Stavanger Norway 1st Division	32-27	W
06/09	Bodø HK Norway 1st Division	25-24	W
30/08	Charlottenlund SK Norway 1st Division	29-30	L
12/04	Bjornar Norway 1st Division	28-24	W
08/04	Lillestrom HK Norway 1st Division	33-31	W
29/03	Asane Norway 1st Division	32-36	L
25/03	Viking TIF Norway 1st Division	35-39	L
14/03	Haslum HK Norway 1st Division	26-29	L
08/03	Ryger Stavanger Norway 1st Division	32-29	W

Tiller IL

LLWDLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	Haslum HK Norway 1st Division	23-40	L
12/09	Bækkelaget Norway 1st Division	20-38	L
06/09	Halden Norway 1st Division	27-36	L
30/08	Notteroy Norway 1st Division	24-36	L
12/04	Grenland Topphandballklub Norway 1st Division	25-24	W
29/03	Bodø HK Norway 1st Division	26-31	L
15/03	Bergsoy Norway 1st Division	28-28	D
08/03	Melhus Norway 1st Division	26-21	W
04/03	Charlottenlund SK Norway 1st Division	21-40	L
01/03	Bjornar Norway 1st Division	26-30	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nordstrand vs Tiller IL?

Our model gives 79% to Nordstrand.

How many points are expected in Nordstrand vs Tiller IL?

The model estimates 58.6 total points (Nordstrand 32.6 · Tiller IL 26).