Handball · Norway 1st Division · 15/11, 16:00

Prediction: Tiller IL vs Varhaug

Team pages: Tiller IL · Varhaug

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.8Total

Tiller IL29.2

Varhaug34.6

1X2

34% 66%

Tiller IL Varhaug

Recent form · 10 last

Tiller IL 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

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Varhaug 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tiller IL 1382 · Varhaug 1460

	Tiller IL	Varhaug
Our model	49%	51%
Market	22%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 63.8 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · +3.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.8Tiller IL 29.2 · Varhaug 34.6

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varhaug (rating 1382 vs 1460).
Varhaug is a clear favourite (66% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Tiller IL	Varhaug
Points F\|A (Last 10)	25.9 / 38.5	29.8 / 31.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.2 / 38.2	28.4 / 31.6
Est. result	29	35

Est. total63.8

Line O/U60.5

Diff.3.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.00

X9.50

21.32

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.85

2 (-3.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.85

Under 60.51.85

Diff.: 2.4 · Est. total: 62.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	1.32 → 1.32	Bet365 1.32

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:46 +29’	4.00	9.50	1.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Norway 1st Division

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Halden	9	9	0	0	297	230	18
2	Charlottenlund SK	9	8	0	1	310	256	16
3	Nordstrand	10	7	1	2	304	267	15
4	Melhus	9	7	0	2	292	253	14
5	Haslum HK	9	7	0	2	285	252	14
6	Bodø HK	9	6	0	3	258	227	12
7	Bækkelaget	10	5	0	5	296	274	10
8	Notteroy	9	4	1	4	278	273	9
9	Lillestrom HK	9	3	0	6	266	285	6
10	Asane	9	3	0	6	245	269	6
11	Varhaug	9	2	0	7	256	284	4
12	Ryger Stavanger	9	2	0	7	249	273	4
13	Kragero	10	1	0	9	268	335	2
14	Tiller IL	10	0	0	10	259	385	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tiller IL	Varhaug
Ryger Stavanger	27-45 L	31-26 W
Bodø HK	24-31 L	24-35 L
Charlottenlund SK	32-42 L	30-31 L
Melhus	30-35 L	31-37 L
Nordstrand	24-44 L	30-37 L
Haslum HK	23-40 L	26-28 L
Bækkelaget	20-38 L	28-25 W
Halden	27-36 L	30-36 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 8 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Varhaug (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tiller IL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	Ryger Stavanger Norway 1st Division	27-45	L
25/10	Bodø HK Norway 1st Division	24-31	L
18/10	Charlottenlund SK Norway 1st Division	32-42	L
11/10	Kragero Norway 1st Division	28-38	L
04/10	Melhus Norway 1st Division	30-35	L
27/09	Nordstrand Norway 1st Division	24-44	L
20/09	Haslum HK Norway 1st Division	23-40	L
12/09	Bækkelaget Norway 1st Division	20-38	L
06/09	Halden Norway 1st Division	27-36	L
30/08	Notteroy Norway 1st Division	24-36	L

Varhaug

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Asane Norway 1st Division	26-29	L
24/10	Ryger Stavanger Norway 1st Division	31-26	W
18/10	Bodø HK Norway 1st Division	24-35	L
30/09	Charlottenlund SK Norway 1st Division	30-31	L
27/09	Melhus Norway 1st Division	31-37	L
19/09	Nordstrand Norway 1st Division	30-37	L
10/09	Haslum HK Norway 1st Division	26-28	L
05/09	Bækkelaget Norway 1st Division	28-25	W
30/08	Halden Norway 1st Division	30-36	L
01/05	Reistad Norway 1st Division	42-32	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tiller IL vs Varhaug?

Our model gives 66% to Varhaug.

How many points are expected in Tiller IL vs Varhaug?

The model estimates 63.8 total points (Tiller IL 29.2 · Varhaug 34.6).