Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga · 15/11, 18:00

Prediction: TUS Ferndorf vs SC DHFK Leipzig

Team pages: TUS Ferndorf · SC DHFK Leipzig

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.5Total

TUS Ferndorf29.6

SC DHFK Leipzig30.9

1X2

38% 62%

TUS Ferndorf SC DHFK Leipzig

Markets

Over 59.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

TUS Ferndorf 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLWLL

SC DHFK Leipzig 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TUS Ferndorf 1480 · SC DHFK Leipzig 1551

	TUS Ferndorf	SC DHFK Leipzig
Our model	50%	50%
Market	27%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 60.5 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.5TUS Ferndorf 29.6 · SC DHFK Leipzig 30.9

Over / Under 59.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~61.2 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC DHFK Leipzig (rating 1480 vs 1551).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	TUS Ferndorf	SC DHFK Leipzig
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.9 / 29.8	32.6 / 30
Points F\|A (Last 5)	26.6 / 31.2	34.6 / 31
Est. result	30	31

Est. total60.5

Line O/U59.5

Diff.1

Over / Under65% / 35%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.30

X9.00

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.85

2 (-2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.85

Under 59.51.85

Diff.: 1.15 · Est. total: 60.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:10 +8’	3.30	9.00	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HC Elbflorenz 2006	10	9	0	1	364	287	18
2	VFL Bad Schwartau	10	8	0	2	329	283	16
3	SC DHFK Leipzig	10	8	0	2	326	300	16
4	1. Vfl Potsdam	10	8	0	2	292	274	16
5	VfL Eintracht Hagen	10	7	0	3	319	280	14
6	TSV GWD Minden	10	6	1	3	308	273	13
7	TSV Bayer Dormagen	10	6	0	4	297	311	12
8	TuS N-Lubbecke	10	5	1	4	274	289	11
9	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen	10	4	2	4	312	302	10
10	TV Grosswallstadt	10	4	1	5	302	302	9
11	TUS Ferndorf	10	4	0	6	289	298	8
12	TuSEM Essen	10	3	1	6	306	322	7
13	TV 05/07 Huttenberg	10	3	0	7	314	324	6
14	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06	10	3	0	7	314	341	6
15	TV Emsdetten	10	2	1	7	299	316	5
16	HSC 2000 Coburg	10	1	3	6	269	314	5
17	Die Eulen Ludwigshafen	10	2	0	8	257	299	4
18	ASV Hamm-Westfalen	10	2	0	8	277	333	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TUS Ferndorf	SC DHFK Leipzig
TSV GWD Minden	20-27 L	24-23 W
HC Elbflorenz 2006	28-35 L	37-35 W
TV Grosswallstadt	24-32 L	33-28 W
Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06	39-33 W	33-36 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SC DHFK Leipzig (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TUS Ferndorf

WWLWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	TSV GWD Minden Germany 2 Bundesliga	20-27	L
23/10	HC Elbflorenz 2006 Germany 2 Bundesliga	28-35	L
18/10	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-30	W
11/10	TV Grosswallstadt Germany 2 Bundesliga	24-32	L
05/10	1. Vfl Potsdam Germany 2 Bundesliga	28-32	L
27/09	VfL Eintracht Hagen Germany 2 Bundesliga	22-25	L
18/09	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06 Germany 2 Bundesliga	39-33	W
12/09	HSC 2000 Coburg Germany 2 Bundesliga	30-31	L
04/09	TV Emsdetten Germany 2 Bundesliga	31-26	W
29/08	Die Eulen Ludwigshafen Germany 2 Bundesliga	34-27	W

SC DHFK Leipzig

WWWWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	TV 05/07 Huttenberg Germany 2 Bundesliga	35-28	W
24/10	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06 Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-36	L
16/10	ASV Hamm-Westfalen Germany 2 Bundesliga	37-33	W
08/10	TuS N-Lubbecke Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-26	W
02/10	TuSEM Essen Germany 2 Bundesliga	35-32	W
27/09	TSV Bayer Dormagen Germany 2 Bundesliga	26-27	L
20/09	HC Elbflorenz 2006 Germany 2 Bundesliga	37-35	W
12/09	VFL Bad Schwartau Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-32	W
04/09	TV Grosswallstadt Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-28	W
31/08	TSV GWD Minden Germany 2 Bundesliga	24-23	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TUS Ferndorf vs SC DHFK Leipzig?

Our model gives 62% to SC DHFK Leipzig.

How many points are expected in TUS Ferndorf vs SC DHFK Leipzig?

The model estimates 60.5 total points (TUS Ferndorf 29.6 · SC DHFK Leipzig 30.9).

Over or under 59.5 points?

Recent history points to over 59.5 points (65%).