Handball · Poland SuperLiga · 19/10, 18:00

Prediction: MMTS Kwidzyn vs Stal Mielec

Team pages: MMTS Kwidzyn · Stal Mielec

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56.8Total

MMTS Kwidzyn29.5

Stal Mielec27.3

1X2

70% 30%

MMTS Kwidzyn Stal Mielec

Recent form · 10 last

MMTS Kwidzyn 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLWLW

Stal Mielec 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

MMTS Kwidzyn 4–2 Stal Mielec (6 last)

MMTS Kwidzyn30-26Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec27-30MMTS Kwidzyn
MMTS Kwidzyn29-30Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec26-24MMTS Kwidzyn
MMTS Kwidzyn29-23Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec27-29MMTS Kwidzyn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MMTS Kwidzyn 1495 · Stal Mielec 1396

	MMTS Kwidzyn	Stal Mielec
Our model	73%	27%
Market	61%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 56.8 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · -1.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56.8MMTS Kwidzyn 29.5 · Stal Mielec 27.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MMTS Kwidzyn (rating 1495 vs 1396).
MMTS Kwidzyn is a clear favourite (70% market).
H2H favours MMTS Kwidzyn: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	MMTS Kwidzyn	Stal Mielec
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.9 / 30.5	24 / 30.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.2 / 28	24.4 / 30.6
Est. result	30	27

Est. total56.8

Line O/U58.5

Diff.1.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.47

X8.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.90

2 (+2.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.75

Under 58.51.95

Diff.: 1.95 · Est. total: 56.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.47 → 1.47	Bet365 1.47
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
09:49 +27’	1.47	8.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MMTS Kwidzyn 4–0–2 Stal Mielec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Poland SuperLiga	MMTS Kwidzyn	30-26	Stal Mielec
09/03/26 Poland SuperLiga	Stal Mielec	27-30	MMTS Kwidzyn
26/10/25 Poland SuperLiga	MMTS Kwidzyn	29-30	Stal Mielec
06/02/25 Poland Cup	Stal Mielec	26-24	MMTS Kwidzyn
23/04/22 Poland SuperLiga	MMTS Kwidzyn	29-23	Stal Mielec
20/11/21 Poland SuperLiga	Stal Mielec	27-29	MMTS Kwidzyn

Standings · Poland SuperLiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KS Kielce	7	7	0	0	275	187	21
2	Wisla Plock	6	6	0	0	229	147	18
3	Chrobry Glogow	6	5	0	1	189	159	15
4	Wybrzeze Gdansk	6	4	0	2	202	172	12
5	Gwardia Opole	7	3	1	3	217	220	11
6	KPR Ostrovia Ostrow Wielkopolski	6	3	0	3	188	199	9
7	MMTS Kwidzyn	6	3	0	3	165	186	9
8	MKS Kalisz	6	2	1	3	173	177	8
9	KPR Legionowo	6	2	1	3	149	175	7
10	WKS Slask Wroclaw	7	1	1	5	193	241	4
11	Stal Mielec	6	0	0	6	147	184	0
12	MKS Piotrkowianin	7	0	0	7	181	261	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MMTS Kwidzyn	Stal Mielec
KS Kielce	22-39 L	27-34 L
MKS Kalisz	34-24 W	21-28 L
Wisla Plock	19-46 L	23-35 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Stal Mielec (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MMTS Kwidzyn

LWLWLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/10	KPR Legionowo Poland SuperLiga	23-21	W
04/10	KPR Ostrovia Ostrow Wielkopolski Poland SuperLiga	28-32	L
26/09	MKS Piotrkowianin Poland SuperLiga	39-24	W
21/09	KS Kielce Poland SuperLiga	22-39	L
09/09	MKS Kalisz Poland SuperLiga	34-24	W
04/09	Wisla Plock Poland SuperLiga	19-46	L
09/05	Stal Mielec Poland SuperLiga	30-26	W
02/05	MKS Kalisz Poland SuperLiga	28-35	L
27/04	KPR Ostrovia Ostrow Wielkopolski Poland SuperLiga	33-27	W
23/04	KPR Ostrovia Ostrow Wielkopolski Poland SuperLiga	23-31	L

Stal Mielec

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	KS Kielce Poland SuperLiga	27-34	L
04/10	MKS Kalisz Poland SuperLiga	21-28	L
28/09	Wisla Plock Poland SuperLiga	23-35	L
21/09	Gwardia Opole Poland SuperLiga	27-28	L
14/09	Wybrzeze Gdansk Poland SuperLiga	24-28	L
05/09	Chrobry Glogow Poland SuperLiga	25-31	L
09/05	MMTS Kwidzyn Poland SuperLiga	26-30	L
02/05	Chrobry Glogow Poland SuperLiga	22-28	L
25/04	Wisla Plock Poland SuperLiga	22-30	L
22/04	Wisla Plock Poland SuperLiga	23-35	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MMTS Kwidzyn vs Stal Mielec?

Our model gives 70% to MMTS Kwidzyn.

How many points are expected in MMTS Kwidzyn vs Stal Mielec?

The model estimates 56.8 total points (MMTS Kwidzyn 29.5 · Stal Mielec 27.3).