Football · Croatia HNL · 21/11, 15:00

Prediction: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split

Team pages: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · Hajduk Split

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0.89

Hajduk Split1.62

1X2

20% 26% 54%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Draw Hajduk Split

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLWDLL

Hajduk Split 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWDWW

Head-to-head

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–2–4 Hajduk Split (6 last)

Hajduk Split2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-1Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-3Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Hajduk Split1-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1430 · Hajduk Split 1601

	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Draw	Hajduk Split
Our model	20%	27%	53%
Market	21%	25%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hajduk Split (rating 1430 vs 1601).
H2H favours Hajduk Split: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Hajduk Split
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	2.2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.7	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.60

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.69
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.92 ★
2	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:02 +20’	4.33	3.60	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +10’	4.69	3.92	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–2–4 Hajduk Split

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/26 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	2-0 HT 1-0	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
16/05/26 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-1 HT 1-1	Hajduk Split
15/03/26 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	2-1 HT 2-0	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
13/12/25 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-3 HT 1-1	Hajduk Split
27/09/25 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	2-0 HT 1-0	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
13/04/25 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	13	9	2	2	27	11	29
2	Dinamo Zagreb	12	8	1	3	28	15	25
3	NK Osijek	13	6	2	5	22	18	20
4	Istra 1961	13	5	4	4	24	19	19
5	NK Varazdin	13	5	4	4	17	14	19
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	19	18	18
7	Slaven Belupo	13	5	1	7	19	28	16
8	NK Rudes	13	5	1	7	16	27	16
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	3	2	8	14	21	11
10	HNK Gorica	13	1	4	8	10	25	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Hajduk Split
NK Rudes	0-1 L	4-0 W
NK Osijek	1-3 L	1-0 W
HNK Gorica	0-0 D	5-0 W
Istra 1961	2-0 W	2-2 D
NK Varazdin	0-1 L	1-0 W
Dinamo Zagreb	2-3 L	2-1 W
HNK Rijeka	1-1 D	0-3 L
Slaven Belupo	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hajduk Split (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
01/11	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-2	1-3	10	5	L
24/10	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
17/10	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
11/10	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
20/09	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
12/09	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-0	1-2	5	7	L
31/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
21/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	1-1	1-4	5	4	L

Hajduk Split

WWWWLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
31/10	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	3-0	5-0	4	4	W
26/10	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
18/10	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
10/10	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/09	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
13/09	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
06/09	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	2-0	4-0	7	0	W
31/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
23/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-0	4-0	0	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hajduk Split win (54%). Probabilities: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20%, draw 26%, Hajduk Split 54%.

How many goals are expected in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split?

The model expects 2.51 goals (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.89 · Hajduk Split 1.62), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.