Football · Croatia HNL · 22/11, 15:00

Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961

Team pages: Dinamo Zagreb · Istra 1961

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Dinamo Zagreb2.78

Istra 19610.86

1X2

77% 15% 8%

Dinamo Zagreb Draw Istra 1961

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Dinamo Zagreb 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLWWLW

Istra 1961 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWLWLDWW

Head-to-head

Dinamo Zagreb 3–1–2 Istra 1961 (6 last)

Istra 19612-2Dinamo Zagreb
Istra 19610-2Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb4-0Istra 1961
Istra 19612-1Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb3-0Istra 1961
Istra 19613-0Dinamo Zagreb

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dinamo Zagreb 1595 · Istra 1961 1534

	Dinamo Zagreb	Draw	Istra 1961
Our model	77%	15%	8%
Market	77%	15%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dinamo Zagreb (rating 1595 vs 1534).
H2H favours Dinamo Zagreb: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dinamo Zagreb	Istra 1961
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	1.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.88

2 (+2)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Pinn 1.19
X	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 7.02 ★
2	11.00 → 11.00	Pinn 11.23

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +4’	1.18	6.00	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +7’	1.19	7.02	11.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dinamo Zagreb 3–1–2 Istra 1961

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	2-2 HT 2-1	Dinamo Zagreb
22/04/26 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	0-2 HT 0-2	Dinamo Zagreb
14/02/26 Croatia HNL	Dinamo Zagreb	4-0 HT 1-0	Istra 1961
09/11/25 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	2-1 HT 2-0	Dinamo Zagreb
23/08/25 Croatia HNL	Dinamo Zagreb	3-0 HT 1-0	Istra 1961
05/04/25 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	3-0 HT 1-0	Dinamo Zagreb

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	13	9	2	2	27	11	29
2	Dinamo Zagreb	12	8	1	3	28	15	25
3	NK Osijek	13	6	2	5	22	18	20
4	Istra 1961	13	5	4	4	24	19	19
5	NK Varazdin	13	5	4	4	17	14	19
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	19	18	18
7	Slaven Belupo	13	5	1	7	19	28	16
8	NK Rudes	13	5	1	7	16	27	16
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	3	2	8	14	21	11
10	HNK Gorica	13	1	4	8	10	25	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dinamo Zagreb	Istra 1961
NK Varazdin	3-1 W	0-0 D
NK Rudes	0-1 L	3-2 W
HNK Rijeka	2-1 W	3-1 W
Slaven Belupo	5-1 W	2-0 W
Hajduk Split	1-2 L	2-2 D
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	3-2 W	0-2 L
NK Osijek	2-4 L	3-1 W
HNK Gorica	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dinamo Zagreb

WDWLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	1-1	3-1	10	7	W
31/10	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
27/10	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
18/10	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	3-1	5-1	2	0	W
10/10	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
20/09	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	2-1	3-2	7	6	W
12/09	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-2	2-4	6	7	L
05/09	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
29/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-2	2-2	8	4	D
22/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-1	3-1	5	4	W

Istra 1961

LDDWLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	2-1	3-1	5	7	W
30/10	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-0	2-0	2	5	W
26/10	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
17/10	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	10	1	L
10/10	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
19/09	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
13/09	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	2-0	3-2	2	3	W
04/09	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
29/08	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-2	2-3	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dinamo Zagreb win (77%). Probabilities: Dinamo Zagreb 77%, draw 15%, Istra 1961 8%.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Dinamo Zagreb 2.78 · Istra 1961 0.86), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.