Football · Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2 · 15/11, 13:00

Prediction: Altay SK Izmir vs Bursa Yildirimspor

Team pages: Bursa Yildirimspor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Altay SK Izmir0.95

Bursa Yildirimspor1.45

1X2

24% 28% 48%

Altay SK Izmir Draw Bursa Yildirimspor

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Altay SK Izmir 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Bursa Yildirimspor 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Altay SK Izmir 1457 · Bursa Yildirimspor 1555

	Altay SK Izmir	Draw	Bursa Yildirimspor
Our model	24%	29%	47%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bursa Yildirimspor (rating 1457 vs 1555).
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Altay SK Izmir	Bursa Yildirimspor
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.9	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	3.7 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +10’	3.60	3.40	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2 · 3. Lig 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eskisehirspor	11	7	3	1	31	10	24
2	Etimesgutspor	11	7	2	2	19	6	23
3	Balikesirspor	11	7	2	2	30	18	23
4	Bursa Niluferspor	11	6	4	1	20	6	22
5	Eskisehir Anadolu SF	11	6	3	2	18	8	21
6	Karsiyaka	11	6	3	2	17	7	21
7	Ayvalikgucu Belediyespor	11	6	3	2	17	12	21
8	Bigaspor	11	6	2	3	18	13	20
9	Bursa Yildirimspor	11	5	5	1	15	10	20
10	Gaziemirspor	11	4	1	6	14	20	13
11	Altay SK Izmir	11	2	4	5	8	20	10
12	Soke 1970 SK	11	1	6	4	15	22	9
13	Bucaspor	11	2	2	7	9	16	8
14	Kepez Belediyespor	11	2	2	7	8	16	8
15	Denizli Idman Yurdu	11	1	5	5	6	20	8
16	Alanya 1221 FSK	11	2	2	7	12	27	8
17	Utas Usakspor	11	1	4	6	9	15	7
18	1922 Aksehir Spor Kulubu	11	1	1	9	7	27	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Altay SK Izmir	Bursa Yildirimspor
Etimesgutspor	0-3 L	1-4 L
1922 Aksehir Spor Kulubu	1-1 D	3-0 W
Balikesirspor	0-5 L	1-1 D
Eskisehirspor	1-4 L	2-2 D
Utas Usakspor	1-0 W	1-1 D
Alanya 1221 FSK	0-0 D	1-0 W
Bucaspor	2-1 W	1-0 W
Bursa Niluferspor	1-2 L	0-0 D
Karsiyaka	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 4 L	3 W 5 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bursa Yildirimspor (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Altay SK Izmir

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	Bigaspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
07/11	Etimesgutspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	0-3	0-3	–	–	L
31/10	1922 Aksehir Spor Kulubu Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
24/10	Balikesirspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
17/10	Eskisehirspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	1-0	1-4	–	–	L
11/10	Utas Usakspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Alanya 1221 FSK Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
27/09	Bucaspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	1-0	2-1	7	8	W
20/09	Bursa Niluferspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
12/09	Karsiyaka Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	0-0	1-1	2	9	D

Bursa Yildirimspor

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	Etimesgutspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	1-1	1-4	7	5	L
07/11	1922 Aksehir Spor Kulubu Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
01/11	Balikesirspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
24/10	Eskisehirspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
18/10	Utas Usakspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	Alanya 1221 FSK Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Bucaspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	Gemlikspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
27/09	Bursa Niluferspor Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
19/09	Karsiyaka Türkiye 3.Lig Group 2	1-0	2-2	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Altay SK Izmir vs Bursa Yildirimspor?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bursa Yildirimspor win (48%). Probabilities: Altay SK Izmir 24%, draw 28%, Bursa Yildirimspor 48%.

How many goals are expected in Altay SK Izmir vs Bursa Yildirimspor?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Altay SK Izmir 0.95 · Bursa Yildirimspor 1.45), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Altay SK Izmir vs Bursa Yildirimspor?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.