Prediction: Tuen Mun SA vs Wanchai
Team pages: Tuen Mun SA · Wanchai
- Wanchai2-1Tuen Mun SA
- Wanchai2-2Tuen Mun SA
- Tuen Mun SA2-1Wanchai
- Wanchai2-3Tuen Mun SA
- Tuen Mun SA3-2Wanchai
- Wanchai1-0Tuen Mun SA
| Tuen Mun SA | Draw | Wanchai | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| Market | 33% | 22% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wanchai (rating 1414 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Tuen Mun SA: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tuen Mun SA | Wanchai | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.7 | 1.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.2 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.5 | 1.2 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tuen Mun SA 3–1–2 Wanchai
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/25 Hong Kong 2nd Division | Wanchai | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Tuen Mun SA |
| 22/05/24 Hong Kong 2nd Division | Wanchai | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Tuen Mun SA |
| 01/10/23 Hong Kong 2nd Division | Tuen Mun SA | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Wanchai |
| 11/12/22 Hong Kong 2nd Division | Wanchai | 2-3 HT 1-3 | Tuen Mun SA |
| 14/11/21 Hong Kong 2nd Division | Tuen Mun SA | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Wanchai |
| 02/05/21 Hong Kong 2nd Division | Wanchai | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tuen Mun SA |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tuen Mun SA | Wanchai |
|---|---|---|
| P.B Alliance | 0-5 L | 0-3 L |
| Tsuen Wan | 3-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Wing Yee | 1-4 L | 0-2 L |
| GFC Friends | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Wanchai (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tuen Mun SA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | P.B Alliance Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-1 | 0-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/10 | Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-3 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | Kwun Tong Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 27/09 | Wong Tai Sin Hong Kong 2nd Division |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | GFC Friends Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | Yau Tsim Mong Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/02 | Fukien Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 04/01 | Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
Wanchai
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Sun Hei Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 25/10 | Kwai Tsing DFA Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 18/10 | Wing Go Fu Moon Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 11/10 | Tsun Tat Kwok Keung Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 27/09 | Kowloon Cricket Club Hong Kong 2nd Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | P.B Alliance Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | GFC Friends Hong Kong 2nd Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tuen Mun SA vs Wanchai?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Wanchai win (45%). Probabilities: Tuen Mun SA 32%, draw 23%, Wanchai 45%.
How many goals are expected in Tuen Mun SA vs Wanchai?
The model expects 3.66 goals (Tuen Mun SA 1.68 · Wanchai 1.98), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tuen Mun SA vs Wanchai?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.