Football · Hong Kong 2nd Division · 15/11, 08:30

Prediction: Yau Tsim Mong vs Kowloon Cricket Club

Team pages: Yau Tsim Mong · Kowloon Cricket Club

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Yau Tsim Mong1.69

Kowloon Cricket Club1.81

1X2

36% 24% 41%

Yau Tsim Mong Draw Kowloon Cricket Club

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Yau Tsim Mong 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Kowloon Cricket Club 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Yau Tsim Mong 3–2 Kowloon Cricket Club (5 last)

Yau Tsim Mong0-3Kowloon Cricket Club
Kowloon Cricket Club0-5Yau Tsim Mong
Yau Tsim Mong2-1Kowloon Cricket Club
Kowloon Cricket Club2-1Yau Tsim Mong
Yau Tsim Mong3-2Kowloon Cricket Club

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yau Tsim Mong 1430 · Kowloon Cricket Club 1474

	Yau Tsim Mong	Draw	Kowloon Cricket Club
Our model	36%	24%	40%
Market	36%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kowloon Cricket Club (rating 1430 vs 1474).
H2H favours Yau Tsim Mong: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yau Tsim Mong	Kowloon Cricket Club
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	1.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.80

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
07:41 +28’	2.50	3.80	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yau Tsim Mong 3–0–2 Kowloon Cricket Club

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/12/25 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Yau Tsim Mong	0-3 HT 0-2	Kowloon Cricket Club
05/05/24 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Kowloon Cricket Club	0-5 HT 0-3	Yau Tsim Mong
24/09/23 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Yau Tsim Mong	2-1 HT 0-1	Kowloon Cricket Club
19/02/23 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Kowloon Cricket Club	2-1 HT 1-1	Yau Tsim Mong
02/01/23 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Yau Tsim Mong	3-2 HT 1-1	Kowloon Cricket Club

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yau Tsim Mong	Kowloon Cricket Club
Tsuen Wan	0-2 L	1-0 W
Wong Tai Sin	1-2 L	1-1 D
Tsun Tat Kwok Keung	0-3 L	2-1 W
Kwai Tsing DFA	0-1 L	1-5 L
Wanchai	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kowloon Cricket Club (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yau Tsim Mong

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
25/10	Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
18/10	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-4	2-6	5	4	L
11/10	Wong Tai Sin Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	1-2	11	3	L
27/09	Sui Tung Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	2-2	2	2	D
20/09	GFC Friends Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
13/09	Tsun Tat Kwok Keung Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	0-3	5	0	L
06/09	Tuen Mun SA Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
10/05	Kwai Tsing DFA Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
26/04	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	1-0	1	3	W

Kowloon Cricket Club

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Double Flower Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	1-5	4	2	L
25/10	Sun Hei Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	1-3	5	5	L
18/10	Kwai Tsing DFA Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-5	8	2	L
11/10	Wing Go Fu Moon Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
27/09	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
20/09	Tsun Tat Kwok Keung Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
13/09	P.B Alliance Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-2	1-4	0	0	L
06/09	Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
31/05	P.B Alliance Hong Kong 2nd Division	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
17/05	Wong Tai Sin Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	1-1	1	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yau Tsim Mong vs Kowloon Cricket Club?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kowloon Cricket Club win (41%). Probabilities: Yau Tsim Mong 36%, draw 24%, Kowloon Cricket Club 41%.

How many goals are expected in Yau Tsim Mong vs Kowloon Cricket Club?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Yau Tsim Mong 1.69 · Kowloon Cricket Club 1.81), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Yau Tsim Mong vs Kowloon Cricket Club?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.