Football · Thailand Division 3 · 14/11, 09:30

Prediction: Royal Thai Army vs Samut Sakhon

Team pages: Royal Thai Army · Samut Sakhon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Royal Thai Army1.04

Samut Sakhon1.64

1X2

23% 26% 51%

Royal Thai Army Draw Samut Sakhon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Royal Thai Army 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDDWLDL

Samut Sakhon 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Royal Thai Army 1–1–3 Samut Sakhon (5 last)

Royal Thai Army3-1Samut Sakhon
Samut Sakhon4-1Royal Thai Army
Royal Thai Army0-0Samut Sakhon
Royal Thai Army0-5Samut Sakhon
Royal Thai Army0-2Samut Sakhon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Royal Thai Army 1477 · Samut Sakhon 1533

	Royal Thai Army	Draw	Samut Sakhon
Our model	23%	27%	50%
Market	23%	26%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Samut Sakhon (rating 1477 vs 1533).
H2H favours Samut Sakhon: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Royal Thai Army	Samut Sakhon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.8	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	0.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.50

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +15’	3.80	3.50	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Royal Thai Army 1–1–3 Samut Sakhon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 Thailand Division 3	Royal Thai Army	3-1 HT 0-1	Samut Sakhon
20/09/25 Thailand Division 3	Samut Sakhon	4-1 HT 2-0	Royal Thai Army
25/01/25 Thailand Division 3	Royal Thai Army	0-0 HT 0-0	Samut Sakhon
07/01/24 Thailand Division 3	Royal Thai Army	0-5 HT 0-2	Samut Sakhon
12/03/17 Thailand Division 3	Royal Thai Army	0-2 HT 0-1	Samut Sakhon

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Royal Thai Army	Samut Sakhon
Hua Hin City	0-0 D	2-0 W
Raj Pracha	1-0 W	3-1 W
Samut Songkhram City	0-0 D	2-1 W
VRN Muangnont FC	1-1 D	4-0 W
Thonburi United FC	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Samut Sakhon (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Royal Thai Army

DWLLDDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Bangkok FC Thailand Division 3	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
17/10	Hua Hin City Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
10/10	Assumption United Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
03/10	Raj Pracha Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
19/09	Samut Songkhram City Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
22/03	VRN Muangnont FC Thailand Division 3	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
14/03	Nonthaburi United Thailand Division 3	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
28/02	Thonburi United FC Thailand Division 3	0-2	1-2	6	6	L
15/02	Raj Pracha Thailand Division 3	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
11/02	Assumption United Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Samut Sakhon

LDDWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Samut Songkhram City Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
31/10	VRN Muangnont FC Thailand Division 3	3-0	4-0	2	5	W
25/10	Suphanburi FC Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
18/10	Thonburi United FC Thailand Division 3	2-1	3-2	7	10	W
10/10	Thap Luang United Thailand Division 3	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
04/10	Hua Hin City Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
20/09	Raj Pracha Thailand Division 3	2-1	3-1	4	0	W
16/05	PT Satun Thailand Division 3	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
10/05	Thonburi United FC Thailand Division 3	2-2	3-3	2	1	D
29/04	Thonburi United FC Thailand Division 3	0-1	1-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Royal Thai Army vs Samut Sakhon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Samut Sakhon win (51%). Probabilities: Royal Thai Army 23%, draw 26%, Samut Sakhon 51%.

How many goals are expected in Royal Thai Army vs Samut Sakhon?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Royal Thai Army 1.04 · Samut Sakhon 1.64), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Royal Thai Army vs Samut Sakhon?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.