Football · Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur · 14/11, 19:30

Prediction: UT Petange vs Koeppchen Wormeldange

Team pages: Koeppchen Wormeldange

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.21Total

UT Petange2.74

Koeppchen Wormeldange1.47

1X2

63% 19% 18%

UT Petange Draw Koeppchen Wormeldange

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

UT Petange 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLDWWWWL

Koeppchen Wormeldange 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWWWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UT Petange 1545 · Koeppchen Wormeldange 1473

	UT Petange	Draw	Koeppchen Wormeldange
Our model	63%	18%	18%
Market	63%	19%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 4.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UT Petange (rating 1545 vs 1473).
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UT Petange	Koeppchen Wormeldange
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 2.3	1.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.7	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	33/0/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	3.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.7	6 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:54 +15’	1.42	4.75	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Mamer 32	11	7	4	0	17	8	25
2	Lorentzweiler	11	6	4	1	21	14	22
3	FC Rodange	11	6	3	2	24	11	21
4	CS Fola Esch	11	6	3	2	19	9	21
5	UT Petange	11	5	4	2	30	25	19
6	FC The Belval Belvaux	11	4	4	3	15	16	16
7	SC Bettembourg	11	4	3	4	23	17	15
8	FC Berdenia Berbourg	11	4	3	4	17	13	15
9	FC Mondercange	11	4	3	4	19	20	15
10	US Feulen	11	4	2	5	20	21	14
11	Avenir Beggen	11	3	3	5	15	14	12
12	FC Luxemburg City	11	3	3	5	15	18	12
13	Koeppchen Wormeldange	11	3	2	6	17	23	11
14	Jeunesse Canach	11	3	2	6	19	29	11
15	Union Remich/Bous	11	2	2	7	10	25	8
16	FC Marisca Mersch	11	1	1	9	8	26	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UT Petange	Koeppchen Wormeldange
FC Marisca Mersch	1-2 L	3-1 W
Union Remich/Bous	4-2 W	3-1 W
FC Berdenia Berbourg	3-2 W	1-1 D
FC Luxemburg City	3-1 W	3-3 D
FC Rodange	3-2 W	0-2 L
FC The Belval Belvaux	3-3 D	0-1 L
US Feulen	3-5 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: UT Petange (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UT Petange

DDWLDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Marisca Mersch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/10	Union Remich/Bous Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	4-2	–	–	W
18/10	FC Berdenia Berbourg Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	3-2	–	–	W
11/10	FC Luxemburg City Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	3-1	–	–	W
04/10	FC Rodange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	0-1	3-2	2	9	W
27/09	FC The Belval Belvaux Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	2-2	3-3	4	5	D
13/09	US Feulen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	2-2	3-5	4	5	L
06/09	Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	5-3	–	–	W
30/08	Lorentzweiler Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	3-3	–	–	D
23/08	CS Fola Esch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-0	–	–	D

Koeppchen Wormeldange

LLLDDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Mondercange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-4	–	–	L
25/10	SC Bettembourg Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/10	Avenir Beggen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/10	FC Marisca Mersch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	3-1	–	–	W
04/10	Union Remich/Bous Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	1-0	3-1	6	8	W
25/09	FC Berdenia Berbourg Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
13/09	FC Luxemburg City Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	1-2	3-3	3	6	D
06/09	FC Rodange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-2	–	–	L
30/08	FC The Belval Belvaux Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	US Feulen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UT Petange vs Koeppchen Wormeldange?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UT Petange win (63%). Probabilities: UT Petange 63%, draw 19%, Koeppchen Wormeldange 18%.

How many goals are expected in UT Petange vs Koeppchen Wormeldange?

The model expects 4.21 goals (UT Petange 2.74 · Koeppchen Wormeldange 1.47), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UT Petange vs Koeppchen Wormeldange?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.