Football · Mexico Liga TDP · 13/11, 17:30

Prediction: CD Novillos Neza vs CD Halcones de Rayón

Team pages: CD Novillos Neza · CD Halcones de Rayón

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

CD Novillos Neza1.87

CD Halcones de Rayón1.31

1X2

50% 24% 26%

CD Novillos Neza Draw CD Halcones de Rayón

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Novillos Neza 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWLWDW

CD Halcones de Rayón 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

CD Novillos Neza 2–1–2 CD Halcones de Rayón (5 last)

CD Novillos Neza2-1CD Halcones de Rayón
CD Halcones de Rayón1-1CD Novillos Neza
CD Novillos Neza3-1CD Halcones de Rayón
CD Halcones de Rayón2-1CD Novillos Neza
CD Halcones de Rayón2-0CD Novillos Neza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Novillos Neza 1509 · CD Halcones de Rayón 1403

	CD Novillos Neza	Draw	CD Halcones de Rayón
Our model	49%	25%	26%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Novillos Neza (rating 1509 vs 1403).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Novillos Neza	CD Halcones de Rayón
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	0.7 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.3 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.4	2.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.6	2.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.75

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:00 +3’	1.80	3.75	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Novillos Neza 2–1–2 CD Halcones de Rayón

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/11/25 Mexico Liga TDP	CD Novillos Neza	2-1 HT 0-1	CD Halcones de Rayón
26/01/25 Mexico Liga TDP	CD Halcones de Rayón	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Novillos Neza
02/02/24 Mexico Liga TDP	CD Novillos Neza	3-1 HT 3-0	CD Halcones de Rayón
22/09/23 Mexico Liga TDP	CD Halcones de Rayón	2-1 HT 2-0	CD Novillos Neza
14/10/22 Mexico Liga TDP	CD Halcones de Rayón	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Novillos Neza

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Novillos Neza	CD Halcones de Rayón
CD Muxes	2-1 W	0-2 L
Azucareros de Tezonapa	1-2 L	0-7 L
Halcones Zuñiga SC	3-1 W	3-0 W
Valle de Xico FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Atletico Inter Capital	1-2 L	1-4 L
CDC Dominguez Osos	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CD Novillos Neza (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Novillos Neza

LWDLLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Muxes Mexico Liga TDP	2-1	2-1	9	6	W
10/10	Oceanía FC Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	1-1	3	0	D
27/03	FC San José del Arenal Mexico Liga TDP	1-0	3-0	4	7	W
13/03	Azucareros de Tezonapa Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
26/02	Halcones Zuñiga SC Mexico Liga TDP	2-0	3-1	12	3	W
20/02	Valle de Xico FC Mexico Liga TDP	1-1	1-2	10	3	L
13/02	Atletico Inter Capital Mexico Liga TDP	1-1	1-2	2	9	L
30/01	CDC Dominguez Osos Mexico Liga TDP	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
23/01	FC Politecnico Mexico Liga TDP	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
05/12	Arietes FC Mexico Liga TDP	1-1	1-3	5	0	L

CD Halcones de Rayón

LWLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Héroes de Zaci FC III Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
17/10	Alamos Mexico Liga TDP	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
11/10	CD Muxes Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
13/03	Valle de Xico FC Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
06/03	Atletico Inter Capital Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	1-4	2	4	L
27/02	CDC Dominguez Osos Mexico Liga TDP	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
17/02	Santiago Tulantepec Mexico Liga TDP	0-3	1-5	6	3	L
06/02	Azucareros de Tezonapa Mexico Liga TDP	0-5	0-7	3	2	L
30/01	Halcones Zuñiga SC Mexico Liga TDP	1-0	3-0	8	5	W
23/01	Héroes de Zaci Hidalgo Mexico Liga TDP	0-1	0-5	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Novillos Neza vs CD Halcones de Rayón?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Novillos Neza win (50%). Probabilities: CD Novillos Neza 50%, draw 24%, CD Halcones de Rayón 26%.

How many goals are expected in CD Novillos Neza vs CD Halcones de Rayón?

The model expects 3.18 goals (CD Novillos Neza 1.87 · CD Halcones de Rayón 1.31), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Novillos Neza vs CD Halcones de Rayón?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.