Football · Colombia Primera B · 16/11, 02:10

Prediction: Deportes Quindio vs Real Cartagena

Team pages: Deportes Quindio · Real Cartagena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Deportes Quindio1.42

Real Cartagena1.17

1X2

41% 29% 29%

Deportes Quindio Draw Real Cartagena

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Quindio 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWWWLW

Real Cartagena 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DLDDWDDLWD

Head-to-head

Deportes Quindio 2–2–2 Real Cartagena (6 last)

Real Cartagena2-3Deportes Quindio
Deportes Quindio1-1Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena2-1Deportes Quindio
Deportes Quindio0-0Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena4-1Deportes Quindio
Deportes Quindio2-1Real Cartagena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Quindio 1550 · Real Cartagena 1512

	Deportes Quindio	Draw	Real Cartagena
Our model	42%	29%	30%
Market	41%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Quindio	Real Cartagena
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2.5 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
14:37 +5’	2.20	3.10	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Quindio 2–2–2 Real Cartagena

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/11/26 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	2-3 HT 0-2	Deportes Quindio
16/10/26 Colombia Primera B	Deportes Quindio	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena
01/04/26 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportes Quindio
27/10/25 Colombia Primera B	Deportes Quindio	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena
19/05/25 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	4-1 HT 3-1	Deportes Quindio
13/11/24 Colombia Primera B	Deportes Quindio	2-1 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportes Quindio	4	3	0	1	6	4	9
2	Tigres FC	4	1	2	1	2	1	5
3	Real Cartagena	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
4	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	4	0	2	2	2	5	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Quindio	Real Cartagena
Tigres FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Real Soacha Cundinamarca	2-0 W	2-2 D
Atletico Cali FC	1-0 W	2-2 D
Barranquilla FC	1-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Deportes Quindio (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Quindio

WWLDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
07/11	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
04/11	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	2-0	3-2	0	3	W
29/10	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
24/10	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
20/10	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
16/10	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
12/10	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
06/10	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
29/09	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Real Cartagena

DLDDWDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-2	2-2	3	7	D
08/11	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
04/11	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-2	2-3	9	3	L
29/10	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
24/10	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
20/10	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	3-0	7	4	W
16/10	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
08/10	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
04/10	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-2	2-3	10	5	L
30/09	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Quindio vs Real Cartagena?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Quindio win (41%). Probabilities: Deportes Quindio 41%, draw 29%, Real Cartagena 29%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Quindio vs Real Cartagena?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Deportes Quindio 1.42 · Real Cartagena 1.17), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Quindio vs Real Cartagena?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.