Football · Denmark Division 1 · 19/11, 19:00

Prediction: FC Fredericia vs Hillerød

Team pages: FC Fredericia · Hillerød

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

FC Fredericia2.07

Hillerød0.75

1X2

69% 19% 13%

FC Fredericia Draw Hillerød

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Fredericia 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDDWWLWL

Hillerød 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLLWLW

Head-to-head

FC Fredericia 4–1–1 Hillerød (6 last)

Hillerød0-2FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia0-2Hillerød
Hillerød0-3FC Fredericia
Hillerød1-1FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia3-2Hillerød
FC Fredericia4-0Hillerød

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Fredericia 1507 · Hillerød 1499

	FC Fredericia	Draw	Hillerød
Our model	67%	21%	11%
Market	70%	16%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Fredericia: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Fredericia	Hillerød
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	1.4 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 1.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.32
X	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.62
2	6.50 → 6.50	Pinn 7.72 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +2’	1.30	5.50	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +6’	1.32	5.62	7.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Fredericia 4–1–1 Hillerød

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/10/26 Denmark Division 1	Hillerød	0-2 HT 0-2	FC Fredericia
07/03/25 Denmark Division 1	FC Fredericia	0-2 HT 0-1	Hillerød
23/09/24 Denmark Division 1	Hillerød	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Fredericia
20/10/23 Denmark Division 1	Hillerød	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Fredericia
11/08/23 Denmark Division 1	FC Fredericia	3-2 HT 0-0	Hillerød
26/05/23 Denmark Division 1	FC Fredericia	4-0 HT 2-0	Hillerød

Standings · Denmark Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hvidovre IF	14	9	5	0	27	13	32
2	Vejle	14	7	6	1	26	16	27
3	FC Fredericia	14	6	5	3	21	10	23
4	AB Copenhagen	14	6	3	5	21	15	21
5	Aarhus Fremad	14	4	6	4	12	14	18
6	AaB	14	3	7	4	17	19	16
7	Hobro IK	14	4	4	6	16	24	16
8	Hillerød	14	4	3	7	18	21	15
9	Kolding IF	14	3	6	5	17	20	15
10	Esbjerg	14	3	5	6	17	24	14
11	HB Køge	14	2	6	6	20	26	12
12	Vendsyssel FF	14	2	6	6	14	24	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Fredericia	Hillerød
AB Copenhagen	3-1 W	1-0 W
Hobro IK	3-0 W	3-1 W
Kolding IF	0-0 D	3-1 W
Hvidovre IF	1-2 L	0-1 L
Aarhus Fremad	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Fredericia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Fredericia

DLWDDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Vejle Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
31/10	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 1	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
24/10	Esbjerg Denmark Division 1	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
17/10	Hobro IK Denmark Division 1	3-0	3-0	5	5	W
10/10	Hillerød Denmark Division 1	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
20/09	Vejle Denmark Division 1	1-1	2-2	0	2	D
12/09	Kolding IF Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
05/09	Esbjerg Denmark Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
30/08	Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1	1-0	1-2	10	4	L
21/08	Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	10	4	D

Hillerød

LWDWDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Kolding IF Denmark Division 1	1-0	3-1	2	7	W
01/11	Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
24/10	AaB Denmark Division 1	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
18/10	Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
10/10	FC Fredericia Denmark Division 1	0-2	0-2	2	4	L
18/09	Kolding IF Denmark Division 1	1-0	1-1	0	2	D
12/09	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 1	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
04/09	HB Køge Denmark Division 1	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	Hobro IK Denmark Division 1	2-0	3-1	4	1	W
20/08	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Fredericia vs Hillerød?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Fredericia win (69%). Probabilities: FC Fredericia 69%, draw 19%, Hillerød 13%.

How many goals are expected in FC Fredericia vs Hillerød?

The model expects 2.83 goals (FC Fredericia 2.07 · Hillerød 0.75), with a 60% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Fredericia vs Hillerød?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.