Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 13/11, 17:30

Prediction: NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Bilje

Team pages: NK Triglav Kranj · NK Bilje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

NK Triglav Kranj2.77

NK Bilje1.34

1X2

66% 18% 15%

NK Triglav Kranj Draw NK Bilje

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Triglav Kranj 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWWWLW

NK Bilje 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLWLWW

Head-to-head

NK Triglav Kranj 5–1–0 NK Bilje (6 last)

NK Triglav Kranj10-1NK Bilje
NK Bilje0-1NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj7-4NK Bilje
NK Bilje0-4NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj2-0NK Bilje
NK Bilje1-1NK Triglav Kranj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Triglav Kranj 1581 · NK Bilje 1511

	NK Triglav Kranj	Draw	NK Bilje
Our model	67%	18%	16%
Market	66%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Triglav Kranj (rating 1581 vs 1511).
H2H favours NK Triglav Kranj: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Triglav Kranj	NK Bilje
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5.9	2.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +2’	1.36	4.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Triglav Kranj 5–1–0 NK Bilje

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/11/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	10-1 HT 4-0	NK Bilje
09/08/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	0-1 HT 0-0	NK Triglav Kranj
27/04/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	7-4 HT 5-2	NK Bilje
12/10/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	0-4 HT 0-3	NK Triglav Kranj
07/04/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	2-0 HT 1-0	NK Bilje
21/09/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Triglav Kranj

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	14	11	1	2	27	10	34
2	NK Triglav Kranj	14	10	1	3	31	13	31
3	ND Beltinci	14	10	1	3	42	18	31
4	NK Bilje	14	8	0	6	26	27	24
5	NK Bistrica	14	7	2	5	19	17	23
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	14	7	1	6	25	17	22
7	NK Rudar Velenje	14	7	1	6	26	21	22
8	NK Jesenice	14	5	4	5	22	21	19
9	Jadran Dekani	14	5	4	5	8	8	19
10	ND Slovan Ljubljana	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
12	NK Krka	14	5	1	8	18	22	16
13	NK Vrhnika	14	4	2	8	12	25	14
14	ND Dravinja	14	4	2	8	20	29	14
15	NK Krsko	14	2	3	9	10	30	9
16	NK Brezice	14	1	4	9	12	28	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Triglav Kranj	NK Bilje
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	4-1 W	0-3 L
NK Krka	2-4 L	2-0 W
ND Beltinci	4-3 W	1-5 L
Jadran Dekani	1-0 W	2-0 W
NK Krsko	2-0 W	1-3 L
NK Jesenice	4-0 W	0-2 L
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	1-1 D	3-2 W
ND Slovan Ljubljana	3-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Triglav Kranj

LWWDWWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	4-1	5	6	W
02/11	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-4	10	2	L
28/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	4-3	5	4	W
16/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
11/10	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
04/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
26/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
20/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
16/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
13/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	5	5	L

NK Bilje

WWLLWLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	3-0	4	2	W
31/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
27/10	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
17/10	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
10/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-5	1	4	L
06/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
27/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
20/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
11/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-2	3	8	W
05/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	4-0	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Bilje?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Triglav Kranj win (66%). Probabilities: NK Triglav Kranj 66%, draw 18%, NK Bilje 15%.

How many goals are expected in NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Bilje?

The model expects 4.11 goals (NK Triglav Kranj 2.77 · NK Bilje 1.34), with a 58% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Bilje?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.