Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 · 14/11, 12:15

Prediction: Basconia vs Alaves B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Basconia1.5

Alaves B1.58

1X2

36% 26% 39%

Basconia Draw Alaves B

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Basconia 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDLDDW

Alaves B 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDWDWL

Head-to-head

Basconia 0–3–3 Alaves B (6 last)

Alaves B0-0Basconia
Basconia0-2Alaves B
Alaves B4-2Basconia
Basconia0-0Alaves B
Basconia1-1Alaves B
Alaves B2-0Basconia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Basconia 1512 · Alaves B 1553

	Basconia	Draw	Alaves B
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	36%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alaves B (rating 1512 vs 1553).
H2H favours Alaves B: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Basconia	Alaves B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	2.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.4	1 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.50

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +1’	2.50	3.50	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Basconia 0–3–3 Alaves B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	Alaves B	0-0 HT 0-0	Basconia
12/10/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	Basconia	0-2 HT 0-0	Alaves B
09/04/22 Spain Tercera Group 4	Alaves B	4-2 HT 2-1	Basconia
05/12/21 Spain Tercera Group 4	Basconia	0-0	Alaves B
05/05/19 Spain Tercera Group 4	Basconia	1-1 HT 0-0	Alaves B
16/12/18 Spain Tercera Group 4	Alaves B	2-0 HT 0-0	Basconia

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sestao River	10	8	1	1	13	3	25
2	Eibar B	10	6	2	2	19	9	20
3	Alaves B	10	6	2	2	23	14	20
4	Bergantinos	10	5	3	2	23	15	18
5	Compostela	10	5	2	3	13	9	17
6	Portugalete	10	4	4	2	15	12	16
7	Amorebieta	10	5	1	4	12	10	16
8	Real Oviedo B	10	4	3	3	13	16	15
9	Basconia	10	3	5	2	15	15	14
10	Ourense	10	4	2	4	9	12	14
11	Gernika	10	2	6	2	15	9	12
12	Rayo Cantabria	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
13	UD Llanera	10	3	1	6	16	24	10
14	Coruxo	10	2	3	5	9	13	9
15	Arosa	10	1	5	4	16	22	8
16	Marino de Luanco	10	2	2	6	8	14	8
17	Atletico Astorga	10	2	1	7	12	18	7
18	Gimnastica de Torrelavega	10	1	3	6	7	19	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Basconia	Alaves B
Portugalete	2-2 D	2-0 W
Rayo Cantabria	1-3 L	3-3 D
Eibar B	1-1 D	2-1 W
UD Llanera	1-1 D	2-1 W
Arosa	2-2 D	5-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Alaves B (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Basconia

LWDWDDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Amorebieta Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-1	2	8	W
01/11	Compostela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
25/10	Portugalete Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	2-2	2-2	3	13	D
17/10	Rayo Cantabria Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-3	3	8	L
10/10	Eibar B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
03/10	UD Llanera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/09	Marino de Luanco Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
19/09	Arosa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-2	0	5	D
13/09	Atletico Astorga Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
06/09	Ourense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-2	6	3	L

Alaves B

LWWWWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sestao River Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	0-2	4	9	L
01/11	Eibar B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
24/10	Rayo Cantabria Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	3-3	5	5	D
18/10	Gimnastica de Torrelavega Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	4-1	5-1	3	4	W
11/10	Gernika Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
03/10	Portugalete Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
27/09	Arosa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	5-2	–	–	W
20/09	Real Oviedo B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
13/09	UD Llanera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Coruxo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Basconia vs Alaves B?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alaves B win (39%). Probabilities: Basconia 36%, draw 26%, Alaves B 39%.

How many goals are expected in Basconia vs Alaves B?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Basconia 1.5 · Alaves B 1.58), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Basconia vs Alaves B?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.