Football · Norway Eliteserien · 21/11, 18:00

Prediction: Valerenga vs IK Start

Team pages: Valerenga · IK Start

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Valerenga2.4

IK Start1.29

1X2

61% 20% 18%

Valerenga Draw IK Start

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Valerenga 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLDLWWWL

IK Start 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Valerenga 3–1–2 IK Start (6 last)

IK Start2-0Valerenga
Valerenga1-1IK Start
IK Start1-2Valerenga
Valerenga4-0IK Start
IK Start2-1Valerenga
Valerenga3-2IK Start

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valerenga 1491 · IK Start 1477

	Valerenga	Draw	IK Start
Our model	61%	20%	18%
Market	61%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Valerenga: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valerenga	IK Start
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.3	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.8	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.54
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.07 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +5’	1.50	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +6’	1.54	5.07	4.92

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerenga 3–1–2 IK Start

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	2-0 HT 2-0	Valerenga
02/11/24 Norway Division 1	Valerenga	1-1 HT 0-1	IK Start
20/07/24 Norway Division 1	IK Start	1-2 HT 0-0	Valerenga
22/12/20 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	4-0 HT 3-0	IK Start
17/08/20 Norway Eliteserien	IK Start	2-1 HT 1-0	Valerenga
30/09/18 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	3-2 HT 1-0	IK Start

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	26	20	2	4	69	27	62
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	63	23	62
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	53	32	46
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	39	35	45
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	64	44	44
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	43	40	40
7	SK Brann	26	10	3	13	47	44	33
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	43	47	32
9	Sarpsborg	26	8	7	11	32	42	31
10	KFUM	26	8	7	11	33	46	31
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	38	53	30
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	31	46	30
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	31	39	28
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	30	51	26
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	45	60	24
16	IK Start	26	5	4	17	27	59	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valerenga	IK Start
SK Brann	3-1 W	2-0 W
KFUM	1-2 L	4-1 W
Fredrikstad	1-1 D	0-1 L
Lillestrom	0-2 L	0-1 L
Molde	3-4 L	1-6 L
Aalesund	5-5 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valerenga

DLDLDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
01/11	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	2-0	4-0	3	7	W
24/10	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/10	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
12/10	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	12	2	L
20/09	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
12/09	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
06/09	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
30/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	3-4	3-4	5	5	L
16/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-4	5-5	5	1	D

IK Start

LWLWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-4	3	5	L
01/11	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
25/10	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
18/10	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-6	6	4	L
11/10	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-4	5	0	L
20/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-3	4	5	L
13/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/09	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
30/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	6	8	W
08/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	6	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valerenga vs IK Start?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valerenga win (61%). Probabilities: Valerenga 61%, draw 20%, IK Start 18%.

How many goals are expected in Valerenga vs IK Start?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Valerenga 2.4 · IK Start 1.29), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Valerenga vs IK Start?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.