Football · Norway Eliteserien · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad

Team pages: Ham-Kam · Fredrikstad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Ham-Kam1.57

Fredrikstad1.55

1X2

38% 26% 37%

Ham-Kam Draw Fredrikstad

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ham-Kam 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWLLDW

Fredrikstad 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDDDLLLD

Head-to-head

Ham-Kam 0–3–3 Fredrikstad (6 last)

Fredrikstad1-1Ham-Kam
Fredrikstad2-1Ham-Kam
Fredrikstad1-1Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam1-1Fredrikstad
Ham-Kam0-1Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad1-0Ham-Kam

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ham-Kam 1487 · Fredrikstad 1516

	Ham-Kam	Draw	Fredrikstad
Our model	37%	26%	37%
Market	38%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fredrikstad: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ham-Kam	Fredrikstad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.6	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.51
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.73 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +20’	2.45	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +4’	2.51	3.56	2.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ham-Kam 0–3–3 Fredrikstad

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Europe Friendlies	Fredrikstad	1-1 HT 0-1	Ham-Kam
16/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	2-1 HT 2-0	Ham-Kam
05/10/25 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	1-1 HT 0-1	Ham-Kam
20/07/25 Norway Eliteserien	Ham-Kam	1-1 HT 1-0	Fredrikstad
21/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Ham-Kam	0-1 HT 0-0	Fredrikstad
23/11/24 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	1-0 HT 0-0	Ham-Kam

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	26	20	2	4	69	27	62
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	63	23	62
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	53	32	46
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	39	35	45
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	64	44	44
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	43	40	40
7	SK Brann	26	10	3	13	47	44	33
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	43	47	32
9	Sarpsborg	26	8	7	11	32	42	31
10	KFUM	26	8	7	11	33	46	31
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	38	53	30
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	31	46	30
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	31	39	28
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	30	51	26
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	45	60	24
16	IK Start	26	5	4	17	27	59	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ham-Kam	Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg	3-0 W	1-1 D
Rosenborg	0-3 L	0-3 L
Bodo/Glimt	0-2 L	1-2 L
Tromso	2-3 L	1-1 D
Molde	1-5 L	1-5 L
Kristiansund BK	2-2 D	1-0 W
SK Brann	0-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fredrikstad (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ham-Kam

LDLLLWLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-0	3-0	8	5	W
01/11	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
24/10	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-3	4	5	L
17/10	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
11/10	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-1	4-2	4	0	W
20/09	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-3	1	1	L
13/09	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-5	6	1	L
05/09	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
30/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-2	9	3	D
16/08	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	1	3	L

Fredrikstad

WWLDDDLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-2	3	6	D
31/10	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
25/10	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-3	1-5	9	3	L
17/10	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-3	0	5	L
11/10	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
20/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
13/09	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
04/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
30/08	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	3	3	W
16/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ham-Kam win (38%). Probabilities: Ham-Kam 38%, draw 26%, Fredrikstad 37%.

How many goals are expected in Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Ham-Kam 1.57 · Fredrikstad 1.55), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.