Football · Norway Eliteserien · 21/11, 14:00

Prediction: Tromso vs Viking FK

Team pages: Tromso · Viking FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Tromso1.4

Viking FK2

1X2

26% 23% 51%

Tromso Draw Viking FK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tromso 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLWDDLLL

Viking FK 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Tromso 0–3–3 Viking FK (6 last)

Viking FK3-1Tromso
Tromso1-1Viking FK
Tromso1-3Viking FK
Viking FK4-4Tromso
Tromso2-2Viking FK
Viking FK2-1Tromso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tromso 1465 · Viking FK 1582

	Tromso	Draw	Viking FK
Our model	26%	24%	51%
Market	26%	23%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viking FK (rating 1465 vs 1582).
H2H favours Viking FK: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tromso	Viking FK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.3	1.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	3.6 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.00

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.66
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.02
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.90 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +16’	3.50	4.00	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +8’	3.84	4.11	1.84
11:11 +5’	3.66▼	4.02▼	1.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tromso 0–3–3 Viking FK

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/10/26 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	3-1 HT 3-0	Tromso
20/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Tromso	1-1 HT 0-1	Viking FK
19/10/25 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	1-3 HT 1-1	Viking FK
27/04/25 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	4-4 HT 0-1	Tromso
01/09/24 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	2-2 HT 2-0	Viking FK
05/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	2-1 HT 0-0	Tromso

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viking FK	26	20	2	4	69	27	62
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	63	23	62
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	53	32	46
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	39	35	45
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	64	44	44
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	43	40	40
7	SK Brann	26	10	3	13	47	44	33
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	43	47	32
9	Sarpsborg	26	8	7	11	32	42	31
10	KFUM	26	8	7	11	33	46	31
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	38	53	30
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	31	46	30
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	31	39	28
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	30	51	26
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	45	60	24
16	IK Start	26	5	4	17	27	59	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tromso	Viking FK
Bodo/Glimt	0-2 L	2-3 L
KFUM	1-1 D	5-1 W
Fredrikstad	1-1 D	3-2 W
Rosenborg	3-5 L	1-2 L
Kristiansund BK	0-2 L	8-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Viking FK (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tromso

LDLLWDDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
01/11	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	2	7	L
25/10	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-3	1-3	6	4	L
18/10	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
11/10	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
20/09	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
12/09	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-4	3-5	4	5	L
06/09	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
30/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
16/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	2	5	L

Viking FK

LWDWWWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	2-0	5-1	8	2	W
30/10	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	2-3	2-3	3	5	L
25/10	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-1	4	4	W
17/10	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
09/10	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/09	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
13/09	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	5-1	8-1	7	1	W
04/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
30/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-1	14	5	W
14/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	6	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tromso vs Viking FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Viking FK win (51%). Probabilities: Tromso 26%, draw 23%, Viking FK 51%.

How many goals are expected in Tromso vs Viking FK?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Tromso 1.4 · Viking FK 2), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tromso vs Viking FK?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.