Football · El Salvador Liga de Ascenso · 11/11, 22:00

Prediction: CD Vendaval vs Once Municipal

Team pages: CD Vendaval · Once Municipal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

CD Vendaval1.1

Once Municipal2.07

1X2

19% 21% 59%

CD Vendaval Draw Once Municipal

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Vendaval 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

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Once Municipal 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

CD Vendaval 0–1 Once Municipal (1 last)

Once Municipal6-1CD Vendaval

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Vendaval 1429 · Once Municipal 1575

	CD Vendaval	Draw	Once Municipal
Our model	19%	23%	59%
Market	20%	20%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Once Municipal (rating 1429 vs 1575).
Cards-heavy: 13.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Vendaval	Once Municipal
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.7	2.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	1 / 2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/75/25%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	1 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	8.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.50

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:38 +24’	4.50	4.50	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Vendaval 0–0–1 Once Municipal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/09/26 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	Once Municipal	6-1	CD Vendaval

Standings · El Salvador Liga de Ascenso · Apertura, Center-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Once Municipal	18	12	3	3	46	25	39
2	AD Izalco	15	9	3	3	28	20	30
3	CD El Roble	16	8	5	3	20	12	29
4	CD Marte Soyapango	17	8	4	5	31	22	28
5	UES	15	8	4	3	28	21	28
6	Nacional FC de Sonsonate	16	6	4	6	16	14	22
7	Once Lobos Chalchuapa	16	6	4	6	22	25	22
8	AD Forfut	16	5	3	8	27	29	18
9	CD Adet Aruba	18	4	6	8	17	21	18
10	AD Academia BP	17	4	4	9	25	40	16
11	CD Vendaval	18	2	5	11	15	37	11
12	CD Fuerte Aguilares	16	1	7	8	16	25	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Vendaval	Once Municipal
UES	1-2 L	3-3 D
CD Fuerte Aguilares	1-1 D	3-1 W
CD El Roble	0-1 L	2-0 W
AD Academia BP	0-0 D	3-3 D
CD Adet Aruba	0-1 L	3-0 W
Once Lobos Chalchuapa	1-1 D	3-1 W
AD Izalco	1-2 L	1-3 L
AD Forfut	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 5 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Once Municipal (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Vendaval

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	UES El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-2	–	–	L
28/10	CD Fuerte Aguilares El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
24/10	CD Marte Soyapango El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
18/10	CD El Roble El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/10	AD Academia BP El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
09/10	CD Adet Aruba El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/10	Once Lobos Chalchuapa El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	AD Izalco El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
26/09	Once Municipal El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-6	–	–	L
22/09	AD Forfut El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-1	–	–	L

Once Municipal

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	AD Forfut El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/10	CD Adet Aruba El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	3-0	–	–	W
26/10	UES El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	1-2	3-3	8	12	D
18/10	CD Fuerte Aguilares El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	3-1	–	–	W
13/10	Nacional FC de Sonsonate El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	2-0	5	5	W
11/10	Once Lobos Chalchuapa El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	3-1	–	–	W
02/10	AD Izalco El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-3	–	–	L
30/09	AD Academia BP El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	3-3	–	–	D
26/09	CD Vendaval El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	6-1	–	–	W
24/09	CD El Roble El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Vendaval vs Once Municipal?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Once Municipal win (59%). Probabilities: CD Vendaval 19%, draw 21%, Once Municipal 59%.

How many goals are expected in CD Vendaval vs Once Municipal?

The model expects 3.17 goals (CD Vendaval 1.1 · Once Municipal 2.07), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Vendaval vs Once Municipal?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.