Football · USA MLS · 21/11, 20:00

Prediction: New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union

Team pages: New England Revolution · Philadelphia Union

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

New England Revolution1.43

Philadelphia Union1.77

1X2

30% 25% 45%

New England Revolution Draw Philadelphia Union

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

New England Revolution 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWWLL

Philadelphia Union 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDLDLW

Head-to-head

New England Revolution 2–4 Philadelphia Union (6 last)

Philadelphia Union1-2New England Revolution
New England Revolution2-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union1-0New England Revolution
New England Revolution0-2Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union5-1New England Revolution
New England Revolution0-3Philadelphia Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New England Revolution 1524 · Philadelphia Union 1541

	New England Revolution	Draw	Philadelphia Union
Our model	30%	25%	45%
Market	30%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Philadelphia Union: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New England Revolution	Philadelphia Union
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	2.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5.7	3.6 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.70

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.12
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.25 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +1’	3.10	3.70	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +7’	3.12	3.54	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New England Revolution 2–0–4 Philadelphia Union

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/10/26 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-2 HT 0-1	New England Revolution
10/05/26 USA MLS	New England Revolution	2-1 HT 0-1	Philadelphia Union
20/09/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-0 HT 0-0	New England Revolution
09/03/25 USA MLS	New England Revolution	0-2 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
18/07/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	5-1 HT 3-0	New England Revolution
19/05/24 USA MLS	New England Revolution	0-3 HT 0-1	Philadelphia Union

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	71	25	77
2	Inter Miami CF	34	16	12	6	80	59	60
3	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	55	47	58
4	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	64	54	55
5	Charlotte FC	34	15	9	10	66	51	54
6	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	66	52	50
7	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	59	52	47
8	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	63	78	46
9	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	67	75	46
10	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	48	62	42
11	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	49	45	42
12	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	52	67	39
13	Atlanta United	34	9	6	19	43	60	33
14	DC United	34	7	12	15	39	61	33
15	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	37	69	26

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New England Revolution	Philadelphia Union
Orlando City SC	0-1 L	4-2 W
Chicago Fire	1-0 W	3-1 W
FC Cincinnati	3-2 W	0-1 L
Real Salt Lake	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New England Revolution

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
02/11	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	1-2	7	4	L
29/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-2	2	5	W
25/10	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
18/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-0	0	2	W
15/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
11/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
27/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	0-3	11	4	L
20/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	4-2	10	4	W
13/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	4	W

Philadelphia Union

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	4-1	6	4	W
31/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-0	0-1	12	0	L
29/10	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
25/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
17/10	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
15/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	3-1	7	6	W
11/10	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
27/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	7	6	W
20/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-3	4-3	4	7	W
14/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	5-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Philadelphia Union win (45%). Probabilities: New England Revolution 30%, draw 25%, Philadelphia Union 45%.

How many goals are expected in New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?

The model expects 3.2 goals (New England Revolution 1.43 · Philadelphia Union 1.77), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.