Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 21/11, 00:00
Prediction: Velez Sarsfield vs Belgrano
Team pages: Velez Sarsfield · Belgrano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Velez Sarsfield1.31
Belgrano1
1X2
Velez Sarsfield
Draw
Belgrano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Velez Sarsfield
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Belgrano
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Velez Sarsfield
2–2–2
Belgrano
(6 last)
- Velez Sarsfield1-1Belgrano
- Velez Sarsfield1-0Belgrano
- Belgrano2-0Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield1-0Belgrano
- Belgrano2-2Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield1-2Belgrano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Velez Sarsfield 1520 · Belgrano 1497
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Belgrano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 30% | 27% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Velez Sarsfield | Belgrano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.8 | 2.7 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Velez Sarsfield 2–2–2 Belgrano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Belgrano |
| 17/01/24 Club Friendly List | Velez Sarsfield | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Belgrano |
| 03/06/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Belgrano | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 28/10/18 Argentina Superliga | Velez Sarsfield | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Belgrano |
| 17/02/18 Argentina Superliga | Belgrano | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 09/05/17 Argentina Superliga | Velez Sarsfield | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Belgrano |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 34 |
| 2 | Argentinos Jrs | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Gimnasia LP | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 20 | 31 |
| 4 | River Plate | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 14 | 26 |
| 5 | Barracas Central | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 26 |
| 6 | Belgrano | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 23 |
| 7 | Independiente Rivadavia | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 24 | 23 |
| 8 | Huracan | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 22 |
| 9 | Sarmiento | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 24 | 21 |
| 10 | CA Tigre | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 19 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 12 | Banfield | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 25 | 15 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 15 |
| 14 | CA Aldosivi | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 26 | 11 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 23 | 9 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 31/10 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 26/10 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 12/10 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 06/10 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 21/09 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/09 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
Belgrano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 01/11 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/10 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 19/10 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/10 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 04/10 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 21/09 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Velez Sarsfield vs Belgrano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Velez Sarsfield win (43%). Probabilities: Velez Sarsfield 43%, draw 30%, Belgrano 27%.
How many goals are expected in Velez Sarsfield vs Belgrano?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Velez Sarsfield 1.31 · Belgrano 1), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Velez Sarsfield vs Belgrano?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.