Football · Spain La Liga · 29/11, 17:00

Prediction: Real Sociedad vs Sevilla

Team pages: Real Sociedad · Sevilla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Real Sociedad1.89

Sevilla1.23

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Real Sociedad Draw Sevilla

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Sociedad 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWWLW

Sevilla 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDLWLD

Head-to-head

Real Sociedad 3–3 Sevilla (6 last)

Sevilla1-0Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad2-1Sevilla
Real Sociedad0-1Sevilla
Sevilla0-2Real Sociedad
Sevilla3-2Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad2-1Sevilla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Sociedad 1548 · Sevilla 1485

	Real Sociedad	Draw	Sevilla
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Sociedad (rating 1548 vs 1485).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Sociedad	Sevilla
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.8	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.80

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:06 +1’	1.80	3.80	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sociedad 3–0–3 Sevilla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Sociedad
24/10/25 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	2-1 HT 2-1	Sevilla
09/03/25 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	0-1 HT 0-0	Sevilla
03/11/24 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	0-2 HT 0-1	Real Sociedad
02/03/24 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	3-2 HT 2-1	Real Sociedad
26/11/23 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	2-1 HT 2-0	Sevilla

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	30
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	31	10	30
3	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	28
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	20	15	26
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	21	20	22
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	17	19	18
7	Athletic Bilbao	11	4	4	3	15	11	16
8	Deportivo A Coruna	12	3	6	3	15	14	15
9	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	17	30	14
10	CD Alaves	12	3	4	5	15	17	13
11	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
12	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	12
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	13	14	12
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	15	21	12
15	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	12
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	12	23	12
17	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	10
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	14	20	10
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	8	20	9
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	9	23	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Sevilla
Levante	2-1 W	3-3 D
Deportivo A Coruna	3-2 W	1-0 W
Valencia	3-2 W	1-0 W
Atletico Madrid	0-3 L	1-3 L
Espanyol	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Sociedad (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Sociedad

WDWLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
01/11	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
25/10	Levante Spain La Liga	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
18/10	Malaga Spain La Liga	2-0	5-2	5	2	W
11/10	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	7	5	W
20/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-0	3-2	5	5	W
13/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	9	3	L
07/09	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	7	6	W
03/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
29/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	7	6	W

Sevilla

LDWWLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
01/11	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-3	2	6	L
26/10	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
18/10	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-2	1-4	2	4	L
12/10	Levante Spain La Liga	1-0	3-3	2	8	D
19/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-1	1-3	1	1	L
16/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
06/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-3	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Sociedad win (52%). Probabilities: Real Sociedad 52%, draw 24%, Sevilla 24%.

How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Real Sociedad 1.89 · Sevilla 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.