Football · Spain La Liga · 29/11, 17:00

Prediction: Real Madrid vs CD Alaves

Team pages: Real Madrid · CD Alaves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Real Madrid2.74

CD Alaves0.74

1X2

81% 13% 6%

Real Madrid Draw CD Alaves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWWWW

CD Alaves 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLLDLD

Head-to-head

Real Madrid 6–0 CD Alaves (6 last)

Real Madrid2-1CD Alaves
CD Alaves1-2Real Madrid
CD Alaves0-1Real Madrid
Real Madrid3-2CD Alaves
Real Madrid5-0CD Alaves
CD Alaves0-1Real Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1638 · CD Alaves 1445

	Real Madrid	Draw	CD Alaves
Our model	79%	15%	7%
Market	84%	12%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1638 vs 1445).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Madrid	CD Alaves
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.3	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.11

X8.00

221.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.95

2 (+2.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.11 → 1.11	Bet365 1.11
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	21.00 → 21.00	Bet365 21.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:06 +3’	1.11	8.00	21.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 6–0–0 CD Alaves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	2-1 HT 1-0	CD Alaves
14/12/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-2 HT 0-1	Real Madrid
13/04/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	0-1 HT 0-1	Real Madrid
24/09/24 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	3-2 HT 2-0	CD Alaves
14/05/24 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	5-0 HT 3-0	CD Alaves
21/12/23 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Madrid

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	30
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	31	10	30
3	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	28
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	20	15	26
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	21	20	22
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	17	19	18
7	Athletic Bilbao	11	4	4	3	15	11	16
8	Deportivo A Coruna	12	3	6	3	15	14	15
9	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	17	30	14
10	CD Alaves	12	3	4	5	15	17	13
11	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
12	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	12
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	13	14	12
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	15	21	12
15	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	12
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	12	23	12
17	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	10
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	14	20	10
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	8	20	9
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	9	23	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid	CD Alaves
Valencia	3-0 W	0-1 L
Racing Santander	3-0 W	1-2 L
Barcelona	2-1 W	1-6 L
Sevilla	4-1 W	0-0 D
Villarreal	1-0 W	1-0 W
Atletico Madrid	1-2 L	1-2 L
Malaga	4-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid

WLWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Valencia Spain La Liga	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
01/11	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	3-0	3-0	6	2	W
25/10	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
18/10	Sevilla Spain La Liga	2-0	4-1	1	4	W
10/10	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	9	8	W
20/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
15/09	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
12/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	3-0	4-1	11	1	W
04/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	6	L
30/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	3-0	4-0	9	2	W

CD Alaves

WWLLDLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
31/10	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-4	1-6	3	5	L
23/10	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
18/10	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
10/10	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
19/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
12/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
06/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	2-0	5-2	4	3	W
28/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs CD Alaves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid win (81%). Probabilities: Real Madrid 81%, draw 13%, CD Alaves 6%.

How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs CD Alaves?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Real Madrid 2.74 · CD Alaves 0.74), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs CD Alaves?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.