Football · Spain La Liga · 29/11, 17:00

Prediction: Malaga vs Athletic Bilbao

Team pages: Malaga · Athletic Bilbao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Malaga0.93

Athletic Bilbao1.71

1X2

20% 26% 55%

Malaga Draw Athletic Bilbao

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Malaga 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

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Athletic Bilbao 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDDLWWD

Head-to-head

Malaga 1–2–3 Athletic Bilbao (6 last)

Athletic Bilbao2-1Malaga
Malaga3-3Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao1-0Malaga
Malaga2-1Athletic Bilbao
Malaga0-1Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao0-0Malaga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malaga 1440 · Athletic Bilbao 1544

	Malaga	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
Our model	19%	26%	55%
Market	20%	25%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Bilbao (rating 1440 vs 1544).
H2H favours Athletic Bilbao: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malaga	Athletic Bilbao
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.3	3.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.75

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:06 +3’	4.75	3.75	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Malaga 1–2–3 Athletic Bilbao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/18 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	2-1 HT 2-1	Malaga
23/09/17 Spain La Liga	Malaga	3-3 HT 1-1	Athletic Bilbao
05/03/17 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	1-0 HT 0-0	Malaga
02/10/16 Spain La Liga	Malaga	2-1 HT 0-1	Athletic Bilbao
17/04/16 Spain La Liga	Malaga	0-1 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
06/12/15 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	0-0 HT 0-0	Malaga

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	30
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	31	10	30
3	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	28
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	20	15	26
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	21	20	22
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	17	19	18
7	Athletic Bilbao	11	4	4	3	15	11	16
8	Deportivo A Coruna	12	3	6	3	15	14	15
9	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	17	30	14
10	CD Alaves	12	3	4	5	15	17	13
11	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
12	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	12
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	13	14	12
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	15	21	12
15	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	12
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	12	23	12
17	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	10
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	14	20	10
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	8	20	9
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	9	23	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malaga	Athletic Bilbao
CD Alaves	1-1 D	0-0 D
Real Sociedad	2-5 L	2-1 W
Getafe	0-1 L	4-0 W
Celta Vigo	1-1 D	2-0 W
Levante	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malaga

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	6	7	L
31/10	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
23/10	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/10	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-2	2-5	4	2	L
09/10	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	8	9	D
20/09	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	9	6	L
17/09	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
13/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/09	Levante Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
30/08	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	0-4	6	2	L

Athletic Bilbao

LWWDDDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
01/11	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	2-1	2-1	5	5	W
25/10	Getafe Spain La Liga	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
21/10	Levante Spain La Liga	0-2	1-3	9	4	L
17/10	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
19/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
12/09	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
05/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	1	W
30/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malaga vs Athletic Bilbao?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Bilbao win (55%). Probabilities: Malaga 20%, draw 26%, Athletic Bilbao 55%.

How many goals are expected in Malaga vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Malaga 0.93 · Athletic Bilbao 1.71), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Malaga vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.