Football · Spain La Liga · 29/11, 17:00
Prediction: Elche vs Atletico Madrid
Team pages: Elche · Atletico Madrid
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Elche0.92
Atletico Madrid1.96
1X2
Elche
Draw
Atletico Madrid
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Elche
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Atletico Madrid
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Elche
2–1–3
Atletico Madrid
(6 last)
- Elche3-2Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid1-1Elche
- Elche0-4Atletico Madrid
- Elche1-0Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid2-0Elche
- Elche0-2Atletico Madrid
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elche 1488 · Atletico Madrid 1577
| Elche | Draw | Atletico Madrid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Market | 16% | 23% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Madrid (rating 1488 vs 1577).
- H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Elche | Atletico Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 5 | 2.4 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elche 2–1–3 Atletico Madrid
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 Spain La Liga | Elche | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Atletico Madrid |
| 23/08/25 Spain La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Elche |
| 15/01/25 Spain Copa del Rey | Elche | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Atletico Madrid |
| 14/05/23 Spain La Liga | Elche | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico Madrid |
| 29/12/22 Spain La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Elche |
| 11/05/22 Spain La Liga | Elche | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Madrid |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 12 | 30 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 26 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 22 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 18 |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| 9 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | 14 |
| 10 | CD Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 13 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 12 |
| 15 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 12 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 12 |
| 17 | Levante | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 10 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Elche | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Espanyol | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Real Madrid | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Athletic Bilbao | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Real Sociedad | 2-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elche
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 01/11 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/10 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/10 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 18/09 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/09 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 07/09 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 28/08 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
0-3 | 2-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
Atletico Madrid
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Levante Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 24/10 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/10 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/09 | Osasuna Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elche vs Atletico Madrid?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Madrid win (61%). Probabilities: Elche 16%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 61%.
How many goals are expected in Elche vs Atletico Madrid?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Elche 0.92 · Atletico Madrid 1.96), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Atletico Madrid?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.