Football · Spain La Liga · 29/11, 17:00
Prediction: Celta Vigo vs Villarreal
Team pages: Celta Vigo · Villarreal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.42Total
Celta Vigo1.16
Villarreal1.26
1X2
Celta Vigo
Draw
Villarreal
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Celta Vigo
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Villarreal
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Celta Vigo
2–1–3
Villarreal
(6 last)
- Villarreal2-1Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo1-1Villarreal
- Celta Vigo3-0Villarreal
- Villarreal4-3Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo3-2Villarreal
- Villarreal3-2Celta Vigo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Celta Vigo 1463 · Villarreal 1485
| Celta Vigo | Draw | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Villarreal: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Celta Vigo | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3 | 4 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Celta Vigo 2–1–3 Villarreal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Celta Vigo |
| 31/08/25 Spain La Liga | Celta Vigo | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Villarreal |
| 23/04/25 Spain La Liga | Celta Vigo | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Villarreal |
| 26/08/24 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 4-3 HT 1-2 | Celta Vigo |
| 05/05/24 Spain La Liga | Celta Vigo | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Villarreal |
| 20/12/23 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Celta Vigo |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 12 | 30 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 26 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 22 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 18 |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| 9 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | 14 |
| 10 | CD Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 13 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 12 |
| 15 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 12 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 12 |
| 17 | Levante | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 10 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Real Betis | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| CD Alaves | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Elche | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Malaga | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Celta Vigo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Levante Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 31/10 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/10 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Elche Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Malaga Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 07/09 | Getafe Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/09 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Villarreal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 24/10 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 9 | W |
| 17/10 | Elche Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 20/09 | Levante Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 17/09 | Malaga Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Villarreal win (38%). Probabilities: Celta Vigo 33%, draw 29%, Villarreal 38%.
How many goals are expected in Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
The model expects 2.42 goals (Celta Vigo 1.16 · Villarreal 1.26), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.