Football · Spain La Liga · 29/11, 17:00

Prediction: Deportivo A Coruna vs Barcelona

Team pages: Deportivo A Coruna · Barcelona

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Deportivo A Coruna0.91

Barcelona2.84

1X2

9% 15% 77%

Deportivo A Coruna Draw Barcelona

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo A Coruna 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Barcelona 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Deportivo A Coruna 1–1–4 Barcelona (6 last)

Deportivo A Coruna2-4Barcelona
Barcelona4-0Deportivo A Coruna
Deportivo A Coruna2-1Barcelona
Barcelona4-0Deportivo A Coruna
Deportivo A Coruna0-8Barcelona
Barcelona2-2Deportivo A Coruna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo A Coruna 1506 · Barcelona 1641

	Deportivo A Coruna	Draw	Barcelona
Our model	9%	15%	77%
Market	9%	15%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (rating 1506 vs 1641).
H2H favours Barcelona: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo A Coruna	Barcelona
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	4.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	3.1 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

111.00

X6.25

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.85

2 (-2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +2’	11.00	6.25	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo A Coruna 1–1–4 Barcelona

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/18 Spain La Liga	Deportivo A Coruna	2-4 HT 1-2	Barcelona
17/12/17 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	4-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo A Coruna
12/03/17 Spain La Liga	Deportivo A Coruna	2-1 HT 1-0	Barcelona
15/10/16 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	4-0 HT 3-0	Deportivo A Coruna
20/04/16 Spain La Liga	Deportivo A Coruna	0-8 HT 0-2	Barcelona
12/12/15 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	2-2 HT 1-0	Deportivo A Coruna

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	30
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	31	10	30
3	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	28
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	20	15	26
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	21	20	22
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	17	19	18
7	Athletic Bilbao	11	4	4	3	15	11	16
8	Deportivo A Coruna	12	3	6	3	15	14	15
9	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	17	30	14
10	CD Alaves	12	3	4	5	15	17	13
11	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
12	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	12
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	13	14	12
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	15	21	12
15	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	12
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	12	23	12
17	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	10
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	14	20	10
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	8	20	9
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	9	23	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo A Coruna	Barcelona
Atletico Madrid	0-1 L	2-1 W
Levante	1-1 D	4-2 W
Real Betis	1-1 D	5-2 W
Sevilla	0-1 L	3-1 W
Getafe	1-1 D	3-0 W
Valencia	3-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo A Coruna

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
02/11	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
24/10	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
16/10	Levante Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
11/10	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-2	2-3	10	5	L
20/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
16/09	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
13/09	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
05/09	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-1	3-2	1	4	W
30/08	Valencia Spain La Liga	2-1	3-1	5	3	W

Barcelona

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
31/10	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	4-0	6-1	3	5	W
25/10	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
17/10	Real Betis Spain La Liga	2-1	5-2	5	6	W
10/10	Getafe Spain La Liga	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
19/09	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-1	3-1	3	1	W
16/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	4-1	7-2	18	5	W
13/09	Levante Spain La Liga	2-0	4-2	5	2	W
06/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	4	4	W
31/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	2-1	5-2	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo A Coruna vs Barcelona?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Barcelona win (77%). Probabilities: Deportivo A Coruna 9%, draw 15%, Barcelona 77%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo A Coruna vs Barcelona?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Deportivo A Coruna 0.91 · Barcelona 2.84), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo A Coruna vs Barcelona?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.