Football · USA MLS · 20/11, 04:00

Prediction: Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake

Team pages: Seattle Sounders · Real Salt Lake

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Seattle Sounders1.74

Real Salt Lake1.23

1X2

48% 25% 26%

Seattle Sounders Draw Real Salt Lake

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Seattle Sounders 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDDLLW

Real Salt Lake 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Seattle Sounders 2–1–3 Real Salt Lake (6 last)

Seattle Sounders2-0Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake2-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders1-0Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake2-0Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders1-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake2-0Seattle Sounders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seattle Sounders 1508 · Real Salt Lake 1528

	Seattle Sounders	Draw	Real Salt Lake
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Salt Lake: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Seattle Sounders	Real Salt Lake
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.5	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.70

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.95
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.90 ★
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.58

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
23:54 +21’	1.91	3.70	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +13’	1.95	3.90	3.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Seattle Sounders 2–1–3 Real Salt Lake

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/09/26 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	2-0 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
01/03/26 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-1 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
12/10/25 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-0 HT 1-0	Real Salt Lake
01/03/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-0 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
30/05/24 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
16/05/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-0 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	74	34	64
2	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	62	51	58
3	St. Louis City SC	34	15	9	10	59	48	54
4	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	57	51	52
5	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	43	43	51
6	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	52	40	47
7	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	62	61	46
8	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	44	46	46
9	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	53	52	45
10	Minnesota United	34	11	11	12	56	58	44
11	LA Galaxy	34	11	11	12	50	57	44
12	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	47	50	43
13	San Diego FC	34	9	11	14	57	63	38
14	Austin FC	34	8	10	16	42	65	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	40	81	26

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Seattle Sounders	Real Salt Lake
Vancouver Whitecaps	1-5 L	0-3 L
New England Revolution	3-0 W	3-0 W
Sporting Kansas City	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Salt Lake (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Seattle Sounders

WWWWLDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
01/11	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-3	1-5	6	2	L
29/10	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	10	2	L
25/10	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	2-2	3	2	D
18/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
15/10	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-1	11	2	L
11/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
02/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
27/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
24/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-0	7	6	W

Real Salt Lake

LLWLDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
31/10	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
29/10	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
25/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	7	5	W
18/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-1	5	6	W
15/10	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
11/10	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
27/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
24/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
20/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	0-3	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Seattle Sounders win (48%). Probabilities: Seattle Sounders 48%, draw 25%, Real Salt Lake 26%.

How many goals are expected in Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Seattle Sounders 1.74 · Real Salt Lake 1.23), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.