Football · USA MLS · 20/11, 01:30

Prediction: Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati

Team pages: Orlando City SC · FC Cincinnati

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

Orlando City SC2.04

FC Cincinnati2.06

1X2

38% 23% 39%

Orlando City SC Draw FC Cincinnati

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Orlando City SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWDDLW

FC Cincinnati 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWWDWL

Head-to-head

Orlando City SC 2–2–2 FC Cincinnati (6 last)

Orlando City SC1-1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati6-2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC3-2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati1-1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1-2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati1-3Orlando City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orlando City SC 1498 · FC Cincinnati 1500

	Orlando City SC	Draw	FC Cincinnati
Our model	39%	22%	39%
Market	38%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orlando City SC	FC Cincinnati
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.2	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	1.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.90

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.97
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.54 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +2’	2.50	3.90	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:04 +12’	2.49	3.97	2.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City SC 2–2–2 FC Cincinnati

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Cincinnati
24/05/26 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	6-2 HT 2-1	Orlando City SC
11/02/26 America Friendlies	Orlando City SC	3-2	FC Cincinnati
29/09/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	1-1 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC
29/06/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Cincinnati
06/10/24 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	1-3 HT 1-1	Orlando City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	71	25	77
2	Inter Miami CF	34	16	12	6	80	59	60
3	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	55	47	58
4	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	64	54	55
5	Charlotte FC	34	15	9	10	66	51	54
6	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	66	52	50
7	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	59	52	47
8	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	63	78	46
9	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	67	75	46
10	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	48	62	42
11	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	49	45	42
12	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	52	67	39
13	Atlanta United	34	9	6	19	43	60	33
14	DC United	34	7	12	15	39	61	33
15	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	37	69	26

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orlando City SC	FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution	1-0 W	2-3 L
DC United	4-1 W	2-0 W
Columbus Crew	3-2 W	0-2 L
Philadelphia Union	2-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Orlando City SC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orlando City SC

WLLWDWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
31/10	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
29/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
25/10	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
18/10	DC United USA MLS	2-1	4-1	1	4	W
15/10	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	3-3	5	4	D
11/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
27/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	2-4	7	6	L
20/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	2-4	3	4	L
13/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	5	W

FC Cincinnati

DLWLLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
31/10	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
29/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
25/10	DC United USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/10	DC United USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
18/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
15/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-2	2-3	12	4	L
11/10	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
27/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
20/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	7	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Cincinnati win (39%). Probabilities: Orlando City SC 38%, draw 23%, FC Cincinnati 39%.

How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati?

The model expects 4.11 goals (Orlando City SC 2.04 · FC Cincinnati 2.06), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.