Football · Dominican Republic Liga · 07/11, 21:00

Prediction: Jarabacoa FC vs Atletico Vega Real

Team pages: Jarabacoa FC · Atletico Vega Real

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Jarabacoa FC0.9

Atletico Vega Real1.62

1X2

21% 26% 54%

Jarabacoa FC Draw Atletico Vega Real

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Jarabacoa FC 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Vega Real 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLDLD

Head-to-head

Jarabacoa FC 1–5 Atletico Vega Real (6 last)

Atletico Vega Real3-1Jarabacoa FC
Atletico Vega Real3-0Jarabacoa FC
Jarabacoa FC2-1Atletico Vega Real
Jarabacoa FC0-2Atletico Vega Real
Atletico Vega Real1-0Jarabacoa FC
Atletico Vega Real1-0Jarabacoa FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jarabacoa FC 1427 · Atletico Vega Real 1510

	Jarabacoa FC	Draw	Atletico Vega Real
Our model	20%	27%	53%
Market	21%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Vega Real (rating 1427 vs 1510).
H2H favours Atletico Vega Real: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jarabacoa FC	Atletico Vega Real
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.2	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	33/56/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.1	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.70

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +13’	4.20	3.70	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jarabacoa FC 1–0–5 Atletico Vega Real

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/09/26 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	3-1 HT 2-1	Jarabacoa FC
05/12/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	3-0 HT 2-0	Jarabacoa FC
20/09/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Jarabacoa FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Vega Real
31/05/23 Dominican Republic Liga	Jarabacoa FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Vega Real
16/04/23 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	1-0 HT 0-0	Jarabacoa FC
11/09/22 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	1-0 HT 0-0	Jarabacoa FC

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jarabacoa FC	Atletico Vega Real
Salcedo FC	2-3 L	0-1 L
Universidad O&M	4-3 W	1-0 W
Moca FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Delfines Del Este	1-1 D	1-1 D
Cibao FC	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Vega Real (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jarabacoa FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
23/10	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	3-1	4-3	3	6	W
18/10	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
10/10	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
28/09	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
24/09	Atletico Vega Real Dominican Republic Liga	1-2	1-3	1	5	L
19/09	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
12/09	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	0-2	0-4	6	4	L
06/09	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
29/08	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L

Atletico Vega Real

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
24/10	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	–	1-2	–	–	L
17/10	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
11/10	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-1	2	10	L
03/10	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
27/09	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
24/09	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
20/09	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
13/09	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-0	5-0	8	4	W
06/09	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-1	1-2	4	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jarabacoa FC vs Atletico Vega Real?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Vega Real win (54%). Probabilities: Jarabacoa FC 21%, draw 26%, Atletico Vega Real 54%.

How many goals are expected in Jarabacoa FC vs Atletico Vega Real?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Jarabacoa FC 0.9 · Atletico Vega Real 1.62), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Jarabacoa FC vs Atletico Vega Real?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.