Football · Senegal Premier League · 08/11, 17:30
Prediction: Stade de Mbour vs ASC Jaraaf
Team pages: Stade de Mbour · ASC Jaraaf
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.47Total
Stade de Mbour0.64
ASC Jaraaf0.83
1X2
Stade de Mbour
Draw
ASC Jaraaf
Markets
Under 1.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 57%
Most likely score
0-0 24%
Recent form · 10 last
Stade de Mbour
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
ASC Jaraaf
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stade de Mbour
0–2–4
ASC Jaraaf
(6 last)
- Stade de Mbour0-2ASC Jaraaf
- ASC Jaraaf0-0Stade de Mbour
- ASC Jaraaf3-2Stade de Mbour
- Stade de Mbour0-2ASC Jaraaf
- ASC Jaraaf2-2Stade de Mbour
- ASC Jaraaf2-1Stade de Mbour
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stade de Mbour 1476 · ASC Jaraaf 1561
| Stade de Mbour | Draw | ASC Jaraaf | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 39% | 36% |
| Market | 27% | 35% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.47 goals · Bet365 line 1.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASC Jaraaf (rating 1476 vs 1561).
- H2H favours ASC Jaraaf: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stade de Mbour | ASC Jaraaf | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/63/25% | 0/86/14% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.8 | 2.8 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stade de Mbour 0–2–4 ASC Jaraaf
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/26 Senegal Premier League | Stade de Mbour | 0-2 | ASC Jaraaf |
| 29/11/25 Senegal Premier League | ASC Jaraaf | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Stade de Mbour |
| 13/02/25 Senegal FA Cup | ASC Jaraaf | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Stade de Mbour |
| 13/05/24 Senegal Premier League | Stade de Mbour | 0-2 HT 0-1 | ASC Jaraaf |
| 30/12/23 Senegal Premier League | ASC Jaraaf | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Stade de Mbour |
| 27/08/23 Senegal FA Cup | ASC Jaraaf | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Stade de Mbour |
Standings · Senegal Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Goree | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | ASC Jaraaf | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | ASC HLM | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Ajel de Rufisque | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Generation Foot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Guediawaye FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Teungueth FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Walidaan DKR | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Diambars FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | AS Dakar Sacre Coeur | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | AS Pikine | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | Stade de Mbour | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 13 | Casa Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Essamaye FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | ASC Linguere | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | US Ouakam | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stade de Mbour | ASC Jaraaf |
|---|---|---|
| Walidaan DKR | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| AS Dakar Sacre Coeur | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Ajel de Rufisque | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| US Ouakam | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: ASC Jaraaf (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stade de Mbour
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | ASC HLM Senegal Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 25/10 | Guediawaye FC Senegal Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | Walidaan DKR Senegal Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 04/06 | US Goree Senegal Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 22/05 | Guediawaye FC Senegal Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Teungueth FC Senegal Premier League |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/05 | AS Dakar Sacre Coeur Senegal Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | Walidaan DKR Senegal Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | Ajel de Rufisque Senegal Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | US Ouakam Senegal Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
ASC Jaraaf
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Walidaan DKR Senegal Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 25/10 | US Ouakam Senegal Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | Ajel de Rufisque Senegal Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 04/06 | AS Camberene Senegal Premier League |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Casa Sport Senegal Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | AS Dakar Sacre Coeur Senegal Premier League |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/05 | AS Pikine Senegal Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 10/05 | SONACOS Senegal Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | Generation Foot Senegal Premier League |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | ASC Linguere Senegal Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stade de Mbour vs ASC Jaraaf?
According to our model, the most likely result is an ASC Jaraaf win (37%). Probabilities: Stade de Mbour 26%, draw 37%, ASC Jaraaf 37%.
How many goals are expected in Stade de Mbour vs ASC Jaraaf?
The model expects 1.47 goals (Stade de Mbour 0.64 · ASC Jaraaf 0.83), with a 51% chance of under 1.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Stade de Mbour vs ASC Jaraaf?
The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.