Prediction: Defensor Sporting vs Penarol
Team pages: Defensor Sporting · Penarol
- Defensor Sporting0-2Penarol
- Penarol1-1Defensor Sporting
- Penarol2-1Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting0-2Penarol
- Penarol3-0Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting0-1Penarol
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 27% | 55% |
| Market | 19% | 25% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol (rating 1455 vs 1529).
- H2H favours Penarol: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensor Sporting | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.5 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting 0–1–5 Penarol
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Defensor Sporting | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Penarol |
| 05/05/26 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 02/11/25 Uruguay Clausura | Penarol | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Defensor Sporting |
| 16/10/25 Uruguay Cup | Defensor Sporting | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Penarol |
| 08/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Penarol | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 03/05/25 Uruguay Apertura | Defensor Sporting | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Penarol |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensor Sporting | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atletico Progreso | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 3-3 D | 1-0 W |
| Boston River | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Cerro | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Albion FC | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Danubio | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Torque | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 5 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensor Sporting
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 24/10 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 17/10 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 10/10 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 13 | L |
| 03/10 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 27/09 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 24/10 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 18/10 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 10/10 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 05/10 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 01/10 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/09 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Penarol win (56%). Probabilities: Defensor Sporting 18%, draw 26%, Penarol 56%.
How many goals are expected in Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Defensor Sporting 0.83 · Penarol 1.63), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.