Football · Uruguay Clausura · 15/11, 00:00

Prediction: Nacional De Football vs Albion FC

Team pages: Nacional De Football · Albion FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Nacional De Football1.8

Albion FC0.83

1X2

60% 24% 16%

Nacional De Football Draw Albion FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional De Football 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWWLW

Albion FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWWWWD

Head-to-head

Nacional De Football 3–1–1 Albion FC (5 last)

Nacional De Football0-0Albion FC
Nacional De Football1-0Albion FC
Albion FC3-2Nacional De Football
Albion FC0-1Nacional De Football
Nacional De Football2-0Albion FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional De Football 1603 · Albion FC 1488

	Nacional De Football	Draw	Albion FC
Our model	59%	25%	16%
Market	60%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional De Football (rating 1603 vs 1488).
H2H favours Nacional De Football: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional De Football	Albion FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.2	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.80

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.51 ★
2	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 6.31

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +7’	1.50	3.80	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:02 +33’	1.45	4.51	6.31

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional De Football 3–1–1 Albion FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/08/26 Uruguay Cup	Nacional De Football	0-0 HT 0-0	Albion FC
23/05/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Nacional De Football	1-0 HT 0-0	Albion FC
04/05/26 Uruguay Apertura	Albion FC	3-2 HT 3-1	Nacional De Football
14/10/22 Uruguay Clausura	Albion FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Nacional De Football
21/05/22 Uruguay Apertura	Nacional De Football	2-0 HT 0-0	Albion FC

Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Montevideo Wanderers	7	4	3	0	12	4	15
2	Nacional De Football	7	4	1	2	8	8	13
3	Deportivo Maldonado	7	3	3	1	12	6	12
4	Torque	7	4	0	3	11	11	12
5	Juventud De Las Piedras	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
6	Albion FC	7	1	3	3	6	8	6
7	Club Atletico Progreso	7	2	0	5	6	11	6
8	Danubio	7	0	4	3	5	9	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional De Football	Albion FC
Deportivo Maldonado	3-2 W	0-0 D
Central Espanol	1-0 W	3-1 W
Torque	2-0 W	2-1 W
Cerro Largo	2-0 W	1-0 W
Defensor Sporting	3-2 W	3-2 W
Montevideo Wanderers	1-1 D	1-2 L
Juventud De Las Piedras	2-2 D	1-3 L
Penarol	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional De Football (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional De Football

WDDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	1-1	2-1	7	9	W
25/10	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
20/10	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	1-0	3-2	8	7	W
11/10	Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
06/10	Torque Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
26/09	Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/09	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura	0-1	3-2	13	7	W
12/09	Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
06/09	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
30/08	Penarol Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-0	3	6	W

Albion FC

LLLLLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
24/10	Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
18/10	Torque Uruguay Clausura	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
11/10	Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
03/10	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura	2-0	3-2	2	7	W
29/09	Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura	0-2	1-2	4	7	L
20/09	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
14/09	Penarol Uruguay Clausura	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
07/09	Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
31/08	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional De Football vs Albion FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional De Football win (60%). Probabilities: Nacional De Football 60%, draw 24%, Albion FC 16%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional De Football vs Albion FC?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Nacional De Football 1.8 · Albion FC 0.83), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional De Football vs Albion FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.