Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro
Team pages: Deportivo Maldonado · Cerro
- Cerro1-2Deportivo Maldonado
- Cerro0-1Deportivo Maldonado
- Cerro0-0Deportivo Maldonado
- Deportivo Maldonado3-0Cerro
- Deportivo Maldonado2-1Cerro
- Deportivo Maldonado1-2Cerro
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Maldonado (rating 1582 vs 1442).
- H2H favours Deportivo Maldonado: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.1 | 1.5 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 5.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Maldonado 4–1–1 Cerro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/26 Uruguay Cup | Cerro | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 02/05/26 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 08/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 05/05/24 Uruguay Apertura | Deportivo Maldonado | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Cerro |
| 04/09/23 Uruguay Clausura | Deportivo Maldonado | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Cerro |
| 18/07/23 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Deportivo Maldonado | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Cerro |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Central Espanol | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Torque | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Cerro Largo | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Defensor Sporting | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Montevideo Wanderers | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Maldonado (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Maldonado
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 8 | D |
| 25/10 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/10 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 2-3 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 29/08 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Cerro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 17/10 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 10/10 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 13 | W |
| 04/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 29/08 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Maldonado win (54%). Probabilities: Deportivo Maldonado 54%, draw 27%, Cerro 19%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
The model expects 2.42 goals (Deportivo Maldonado 1.58 · Cerro 0.85), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.