Football · Uruguay Clausura · 13/11, 00:00
Prediction: Cerro Largo vs Club Atletico Progreso
Team pages: Cerro Largo · Club Atletico Progreso
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.07Total
Cerro Largo1.26
Club Atletico Progreso0.81
1X2
Cerro Largo
Draw
Club Atletico Progreso
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Cerro Largo
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Club Atletico Progreso
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerro Largo
6–0
Club Atletico Progreso
(6 last)
- Club Atletico Progreso0-1Cerro Largo
- Club Atletico Progreso1-2Cerro Largo
- Cerro Largo4-1Club Atletico Progreso
- Cerro Largo2-1Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso0-1Cerro Largo
- Cerro Largo1-0Club Atletico Progreso
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cerro Largo 1453 · Club Atletico Progreso 1504
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 32% | 23% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico Progreso (rating 1453 vs 1504).
- H2H favours Cerro Largo: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerro Largo | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 2.4 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.4 | 4.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro Largo 6–0–0 Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 09/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Club Atletico Progreso | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Cerro Largo |
| 07/02/25 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro Largo | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 30/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 04/06/24 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 17/10/21 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerro Largo | Club Atletico Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Boston River | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Cerro | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Albion FC | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Danubio | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerro Largo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 25/10 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 17/10 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 11/10 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 04/10 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 26/09 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 31/08 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 25/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 03/10 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 26/09 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerro Largo vs Club Atletico Progreso?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerro Largo win (47%). Probabilities: Cerro Largo 47%, draw 30%, Club Atletico Progreso 24%.
How many goals are expected in Cerro Largo vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model expects 2.07 goals (Cerro Largo 1.26 · Club Atletico Progreso 0.81), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerro Largo vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.