Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 04/11, 19:30

Prediction: Bala Azul vs Atletico Santa Cruz

Team pages: Bala Azul · Atletico Santa Cruz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Bala Azul1.35

Atletico Santa Cruz1.25

1X2

38% 29% 33%

Bala Azul Draw Atletico Santa Cruz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Bala Azul 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLLWDW

Atletico Santa Cruz 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDDWWW

Head-to-head

Bala Azul 0–2 Atletico Santa Cruz (2 last)

Bala Azul0-1Atletico Santa Cruz
Atletico Santa Cruz1-0Bala Azul

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bala Azul 1483 · Atletico Santa Cruz 1537

	Bala Azul	Draw	Atletico Santa Cruz
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Santa Cruz (rating 1483 vs 1537).
H2H favours Atletico Santa Cruz: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bala Azul	Atletico Santa Cruz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/33/22%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.3 / 0.7	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:57 +7’	2.38	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bala Azul 0–0–2 Atletico Santa Cruz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Bala Azul	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Santa Cruz
13/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Atletico Santa Cruz	1-0	Bala Azul

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santomera	8	7	1	0	21	7	22
2	San Javier CF	8	4	3	1	12	10	15
3	Atletico Santa Cruz	8	4	3	1	14	10	15
4	UCAM Murcia CF B	8	4	2	2	16	8	14
5	Aguilas B	8	3	5	0	11	6	14
6	Union Molinense CF	8	3	3	2	14	11	12
7	Bala Azul	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
8	UD Los Garres	8	3	2	3	9	8	11
9	At. Pulpileno	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
10	Olimpico Totana	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
11	Cotillas CD	8	3	1	4	10	11	10
12	Deportivo Maritimo	8	3	1	4	9	13	10
13	Alcantarilla FC	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
14	FC Cartagena B	8	2	2	4	12	15	8
15	SFC Minerva	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
16	CD Algar	8	2	0	6	5	16	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	8	1	2	5	10	18	5
18	Mazarron	8	1	1	6	12	17	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bala Azul	Atletico Santa Cruz
Union Molinense CF	1-1 D	2-0 W
At. Pulpileno	3-2 W	3-2 W
Cotillas CD	1-2 L	1-0 W
Alcantarilla FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Aguilas B	0-0 D	1-1 D
Mazarron	1-0 W	2-2 D
Olimpico Totana	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Santa Cruz (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bala Azul

LLDWDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-0	10	8	W
25/10	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-1	7	7	D
10/10	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-2	6	11	W
04/10	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	0-2	1-2	3	6	L
27/09	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	11	8	L
20/09	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
12/09	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-0	3	11	W
06/09	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
09/05	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-4	–	–	L
02/05	Cieza Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-3	5	6	L

Atletico Santa Cruz

LWLWDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
24/10	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-2	6	4	W
10/10	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
04/10	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
26/09	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
20/09	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
06/09	AD Mar Menor San Javier Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-3	6	11	L
10/05	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
02/05	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-2	1-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bala Azul vs Atletico Santa Cruz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bala Azul win (38%). Probabilities: Bala Azul 38%, draw 29%, Atletico Santa Cruz 33%.

How many goals are expected in Bala Azul vs Atletico Santa Cruz?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Bala Azul 1.35 · Atletico Santa Cruz 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bala Azul vs Atletico Santa Cruz?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.