Football · Spain Segunda · 08/11, 17:00

Prediction: Burgos vs Celta Fortuna

Team pages: Burgos · Celta Fortuna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Burgos2.06

Celta Fortuna0.96

1X2

61% 23% 16%

Burgos Draw Celta Fortuna

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Burgos 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLLWWD

Celta Fortuna 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLWDLD

Head-to-head

Burgos 4–1–1 Celta Fortuna (6 last)

Burgos1-0Celta Fortuna
Celta Fortuna1-1Burgos
Burgos2-1Celta Fortuna
Celta Fortuna0-1Burgos
Burgos2-0Celta Fortuna
Celta Fortuna4-1Burgos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Burgos 1551 · Celta Fortuna 1462

	Burgos	Draw	Celta Fortuna
Our model	62%	22%	16%
Market	61%	24%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Burgos (rating 1551 vs 1462).
H2H favours Burgos: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Burgos	Celta Fortuna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.90

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.50▼	Bet365 1.50
X	3.60 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
2	4.50 → 6.00▲	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:36 +2’	1.70	3.60	4.50
21:59 +33’	1.50▼	3.90▲	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Burgos 4–1–1 Celta Fortuna

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/21 Spain Segunda B Group 1	Burgos	1-0 HT 0-0	Celta Fortuna
18/04/21 Spain Segunda B Group 1	Celta Fortuna	1-1 HT 1-1	Burgos
12/05/19 Spain Segunda B Group 1	Burgos	2-1 HT 2-0	Celta Fortuna
22/12/18 Spain Segunda B Group 1	Celta Fortuna	0-1 HT 0-1	Burgos
19/02/17 Spain Segunda B Group 1	Burgos	2-0 HT 0-0	Celta Fortuna
02/10/16 Spain Segunda B Group 1	Celta Fortuna	4-1 HT 3-1	Burgos

Standings · Spain Segunda

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Castellon	12	8	3	1	23	5	27
2	Almeria	12	8	2	2	23	10	26
3	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21	14	23
4	Granada	12	7	2	3	20	14	23
5	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	15	7	22
6	Sporting Gijon	12	7	1	4	13	13	22
7	Girona	12	6	3	3	22	11	21
8	Burgos	12	6	3	3	17	13	21
9	Oviedo	12	5	3	4	17	15	18
10	Sabadell	12	4	5	3	12	11	17
11	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	17	21	17
12	Cordoba	12	5	1	6	19	22	16
13	Valladolid	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
14	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13	15	14
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13	17	14
16	Celta Fortuna	12	3	4	5	18	23	13
17	Leganes	12	3	3	6	10	20	12
18	Real Sociedad B	12	3	2	7	15	22	11
19	Cadiz	12	2	4	6	15	16	10
20	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15	20	10
21	Albacete	12	2	1	9	10	23	7
22	AD Ceuta FC	12	1	2	9	10	27	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Burgos	Celta Fortuna
CD Castellon	1-1 D	1-2 L
Sabadell	1-0 W	1-1 D
Almeria	1-2 L	0-2 L
AD Ceuta FC	3-1 W	2-0 W
Real Sociedad B	2-2 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Burgos (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Burgos

DDWWWLLWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	1	8	D
26/10	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	3-2	3-2	3	2	W
18/10	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
12/10	Granada Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
03/10	Almeria Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
27/09	Eldense Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
20/09	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
11/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-1	3-1	1	5	W
06/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
31/08	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	1-1	2-2	6	3	D

Celta Fortuna

LWLLDLWDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Cordoba Spain Segunda	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
24/10	Girona Spain Segunda	0-4	1-5	2	5	L
19/10	Tenerife Spain Segunda	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
10/10	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	3-0	4-1	1	6	W
04/10	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	1-2	2-3	6	8	L
26/09	Sabadell Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
20/09	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
14/09	Eibar Spain Segunda	0-4	0-4	5	7	L
05/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
31/08	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Burgos vs Celta Fortuna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Burgos win (61%). Probabilities: Burgos 61%, draw 23%, Celta Fortuna 16%.

How many goals are expected in Burgos vs Celta Fortuna?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Burgos 2.06 · Celta Fortuna 0.96), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Burgos vs Celta Fortuna?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.