Football · Costa Rica Primera Division · 04/11, 22:00

Prediction: Herediano vs Deportivo Saprissa

Team pages: Herediano · Deportivo Saprissa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Herediano1.19

Deportivo Saprissa1.15

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Herediano Draw Deportivo Saprissa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Herediano 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Deportivo Saprissa 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Herediano 3–3 Deportivo Saprissa (6 last)

Deportivo Saprissa2-0Herediano
Deportivo Saprissa0-1Herediano
Herediano2-0Deportivo Saprissa
Deportivo Saprissa2-1Herediano
Deportivo Saprissa2-1Herediano
Herediano2-0Deportivo Saprissa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herediano 1501 · Deportivo Saprissa 1497

	Herediano	Draw	Deportivo Saprissa
Our model	36%	31%	34%
Market	37%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herediano	Deportivo Saprissa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.9	3.3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:56 +11’	2.50	3.40	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Herediano 3–0–3 Deportivo Saprissa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/09/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Deportivo Saprissa	2-0 HT 1-0	Herediano
18/07/26 Costa Rica Super Cup	Deportivo Saprissa	0-1 HT 0-1	Herediano
17/05/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Herediano	2-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Saprissa
14/05/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Deportivo Saprissa	2-1 HT 2-1	Herediano
09/03/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Deportivo Saprissa	2-1 HT 0-0	Herediano
18/01/26 Costa Rica Primera Division	Herediano	2-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Saprissa

Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cartagines	14	9	0	5	27	17	27
2	Sporting San Jose	14	8	3	3	27	20	27
3	Deportivo Saprissa	14	8	1	5	27	14	25
4	Alajuelense	14	6	5	3	21	14	23
5	AD San Carlos	14	7	1	6	15	18	22
6	Puntarenas	14	5	4	5	16	20	19
7	Inter San Carlos	14	5	3	6	17	23	18
8	Herediano	14	4	2	8	15	18	14
9	Escorpiones de Belen FC	14	4	1	9	17	24	13
10	Municipal Perez Zeledon	14	2	4	8	10	24	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herediano	Deportivo Saprissa
Sporting San Jose	0-1 L	6-0 W
Cartagines	3-1 W	0-1 L
Alajuelense	1-1 D	0-0 D
AD San Carlos	0-1 L	1-2 L
Escorpiones de Belen FC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Herediano (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herediano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
25/10	Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	3-1	2	1	W
19/10	Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	3-0	9	4	W
15/10	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	1-1	6	9	D
11/10	AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	11	3	L
20/09	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-2	5	11	L
13/09	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
06/09	Municipal Perez Zeledon Costa Rica Primera Division	1-1	2-3	9	9	L
30/08	Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
23/08	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-3	6	1	L

Deportivo Saprissa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
25/10	AD San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
18/10	Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
16/10	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	3-0	6-0	10	2	W
12/10	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
20/09	Herediano Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	2-0	4	11	W
14/09	Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division	1-3	2-4	4	5	L
06/09	Alajuelense Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
31/08	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division	1-0	2-1	10	3	W
23/08	Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division	0-0	0-1	8	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herediano vs Deportivo Saprissa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Herediano win (36%). Probabilities: Herediano 36%, draw 29%, Deportivo Saprissa 35%.

How many goals are expected in Herediano vs Deportivo Saprissa?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Herediano 1.19 · Deportivo Saprissa 1.15), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Herediano vs Deportivo Saprissa?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.