Football · Brazil Serie A · 19/11, 23:30
Prediction: Vitoria vs Bragantino
Team pages: Vitoria · Bragantino
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Vitoria1.35
Bragantino1.43
1X2
Vitoria
Draw
Bragantino
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Vitoria
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Bragantino
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vitoria
2–4
Bragantino
(6 last)
- Bragantino2-0Vitoria
- Bragantino4-0Vitoria
- Vitoria1-0Bragantino
- Vitoria1-0Bragantino
- Bragantino2-1Vitoria
- Bragantino2-0Vitoria
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vitoria 1424 · Bragantino 1518
| Vitoria | Draw | Bragantino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bragantino (rating 1424 vs 1518).
- H2H favours Bragantino: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vitoria | Bragantino | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.7 | 3.2 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria 2–0–4 Bragantino
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Brazil Serie A | Bragantino | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Vitoria |
| 03/12/25 Brazil Serie A | Bragantino | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Vitoria |
| 20/07/25 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Bragantino |
| 19/10/24 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bragantino |
| 23/06/24 Brazil Serie A | Bragantino | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Vitoria |
| 29/09/19 Brazil Serie B | Bragantino | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Vitoria |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | 76 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | 73 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | 60 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | 57 |
| 5 | Athletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | 54 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 40 | 50 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | 47 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | 47 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 44 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | 42 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | 42 |
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 50 | 41 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 48 | 40 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | 38 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | 38 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | 37 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | 37 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37 | 57 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 68 | 21 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vitoria | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Cruzeiro | 1-3 L | 4-2 W |
| Mirassol | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Atletico Mineiro | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vitoria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 31/10 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 24/10 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 20/10 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 11/10 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 08/10 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 08/09 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
Bragantino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 28/10 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 24/10 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 19/10 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/10 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
3-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 08/10 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 03/10 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
2-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vitoria vs Bragantino?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bragantino win (38%). Probabilities: Vitoria 34%, draw 28%, Bragantino 38%.
How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Bragantino?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Vitoria 1.35 · Bragantino 1.43), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Bragantino?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.